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Denny Hamlin's 'decline' is completely overblown, and this stat proves it

The points scored in only the first three playoff races paint an interesting picture.
ByAsher Fair
Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, NASCAR Cup Series
Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing, NASCAR Cup Series | Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It took only three races into the 10-race NASCAR Cup Series "Chase" postseason for a new points leader to emerge, with regular season champion Denny Hamlin having been unseated on Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway.

It's reigning series champion Kyle Larson who now leads the way, after getting the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet back to victory lane for the first time in 52 races two weekends ago at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway and backing that up with a runner-up at Bristol.

Unsurprisingly, Larson leads all drivers in total points scored when you look just at the three playoff races that have been run so far, with Team Penske's Joey Logano not far behind after winning at Bristol.

Because of the 15 bonus points that are now awarded to winners (compared to 2025), to make up for the removal of "win and in", it's also no surprise that Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell, who won the playoff opener at Darlington Raceway, is third.

Interestingly though, those three would all be in the top three under the old scoring format also. Between them, they have been incredibly consistent, recording just one finish outside of the top nine this postseason.

There are, however, a few surprises. Despite having not yet placed higher than eighth in a postseason race this year, Hamlin is fourth, thanks to the 29 stage points he has collected. Without them, he'd be outside of the top 10, and he would be a lot further than one point behind Larson in the actual standings.

And now the series is set to visit three straight 1.5-mile ovals, where he is expected to be the man to beat. It's no surprise that, despite having gone more than three months without a win, and having just lost the points lead for the first time since late June, he is still the favorite to win the title.

Additionally, Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry, who did not qualify for the postseason, is eighth, with his late regular season hot streak having continued into the playoffs. He is the only non-playoff driver in the top 12.

Among the 16 playoff drivers, Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott and Spire Motorsports' Daniel Suarez are bringing up the rear, with Elliott 24th and Suarez tied for 25th. For what it's worth, under the old "win and in" format, they would have both been eliminated after Bristol, since the Bass Pro Shops Race would have been the round of 16/round of 12 cutoff race.

NASCAR Cup Series points scored during the postseason

Note that all drivers competing full-time, including Austin Hill (who is not actually points eligible), are included. Playoff drivers are in bold.

Rank

Driver

Points

1

Kyle Larson

161

2

Joey Logano

155

3

Christopher Bell

139

4

Denny Hamlin

105

5

Ty Gibbs

104

6

Bubba Wallace

104

7

Carson Hocevar

101

8

Josh Berry

87

9

Austin Cindric

85

10

Ryan Preece

82

11

Tyler Reddick

80

12

Ryan Blaney

79

13

Ross Chastain

74

14

Brad Keselowski

72

15

William Byron

70

16

Alex Bowman

65

17

Chase Briscoe

64

18

Austin Dillon

59

19

Michael McDowell

53

20

Chris Buescher

52

21

Todd Gilliland

52

22

Erik Jones

51

23

A.J. Allmendinger

51

24

Chase Elliott

49

25

Daniel Suarez

47

26

John Hunter Nemechek

47

27

Connor Zilisch

46

28

Shane van Gisbergen

42

29

Cole Custer

41

30

Austin Hill

33

31

Noah Gragson

30

32

Zane Smith

22

33

Cody Ware

22

34

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

20

35

Ty Dillon

14

36

Riley Herbst

13

These are basically what the standings would look like (minus the non-playoff drivers) if NASCAR actually did a total reset following the regular season.

The real standings are simply calculated by adding the totals below to the predetermined bonus point values assigned to each of the 16 playoff drivers post-regular season, based strictly on the regular season standings. None of those 16 drivers are eliminated with seven races remaining on the 2026 schedule.

And nobody can be eliminated this weekend at Kansas Speedway (or even next weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway) either. Tune in to USA Network this Sunday, September 27 at 3:00 p.m. ET for the live broadcast of the Hollywood Casino 400 from Kansas.

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