Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin took the lead of the NASCAR Cup Series point standings from 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick in late June, after he had already been the favorite to win the 2026 championship for several weeks due to an incredibly strong stretch from mid-spring to late spring, which included a three-race winning streak.
Hamlin did not relinquish the points lead for the rest of the regular season and retained his status as the heavy title favorite. He clinched the regular season title even before the regular season finale, and he ended up beating Team Penske's Ryan Blaney to the top spot by 89 points.
But Hamlin lost over 3,000 combined points to his 15 championship rivals entering the "Chase" postseason, thanks to the new points reset process, and his lead to Blaney was reduced to 25 points.
His lead dropped to 12 points (to teammate Christopher Bell) after Bell won at Darlington Raceway to open up the playoffs, and it dropped to nine (over Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson) after Larson won at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.
NASCAR points leader not favored to win 2026 championship
Now the lead belongs to Larson, after his runner-up finish at Bristol Motor Speedway. But Hamlin is still the title favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, marking the first time in three months that the title favorite is not the points leader.
Hamlin is not as big of a favorite as he once was, sitting at +200. Larson is second at +320, so if you were planning on betting on him, we hope you got in a few weeks ago when he was considered a longshot at +3500.
Team Penske's Joey Logano, who won at Bristol, is listed a close third at +370, as he continues to prove that, no matter what playoff format is used, he and the No. 22 team know how to be at their best when it matters most.
From 2018 to 2025, every time he won more than two races after a season's halfway point, he won the championship. The three-time champion has already won three races since mid-July of this year.
Bell is listed closely behind at +450, and then there is a bit of a drop-off down to teammate Ty Gibbs at +850. Larson, Hamlin, Logano, and Bell are only separated by 17 points, with Gibbs 42 behind.
After his wreck with Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar, Blaney, who had a legitimate chance to take the points lead on Saturday night, is sixth in points, 52 behind Larson, and listed at +1000.
Full NASCAR Cup Series championship odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are always subject to change.
USA Network's live coverage of race number four on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series postseason schedule, the Hollywood Casino 400, is set to begin at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 27. Don't miss any of the action from Kansas Speedway!
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