After May's road course race at Watkins Glen International, a Tyler Reddick NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship felt like a foregone conclusion.
The driver of the No. 45 Toyota won five of the season's first nine races, with three of those making him the first driver in series history to record a three-race win streak to start a season. And even though Watkins Glen marked his first three-race losing streak of the year, he still managed to increase his points lead during that stretch.
It's been well-documented, especially during Denny Hamlin's summer surge, that Reddick led Hamlin by 129 points after the Watkins Glen race. Hamlin proceeded to outscore him in seven straight races, and by the sixth of those seven races, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota found himself atop the point standings.
Reddick's slide has only worsened since, and it hit rock bottom at Iowa Speedway, when he crashed in the opening laps of Sunday's Iowa Corn 350.
After recording just three finishes outside of the top 10, and nothing lower than 15th, in the season's first 14 races, he's now finished 25th or lower in sixth of the nine most recent events, with just one result higher than eighth during that stretch. Five of those results have been 30th or worse.
Needless to say, the regular season championship battle might indeed be over, but unlike what everybody thought in May, it might belong to Hamlin, who now boasts a 103-point lead.
But that 103-point lead isn't even over Reddick at this point.
Reddick dropped all the way down to fourth place with his Iowa result, while race winner Ty Gibbs and Ryan Blaney moved past him into second and third, respectively.
Even when Reddick wasn't winning races early on, he was consistent, with an average finish of 8.11 in his nine non-wins during the season's first 14 races, including five top six results.
Now in addition to Hamlin, he's behind two drivers who have only combined to win four races.
Reddick is 120 points out of the points lead, while it's Gibbs who moved into second, the highest he's been all year. Blaney is 110 points behind Hamlin.
After that same race at Watkins Glen, Blaney was 162 points behind Reddick, and Gibbs was 195 points. Both drivers have completely overcome those deficits with three races remaining in the regular season, and they've done so in under three months – three months that featured two weeks off from points-paying action.
Every position in the regular season standings is crucial when it comes to playoff seeding and the bonus points associated with each spot under the new Chase format.
Fortunately for Reddick, he does have a bit of a buffer over fifth place. He's 140 points ahead of Chase Briscoe with just three races to go before the playoffs, so barring multiple additional catastrophes, fourth place might well be the floor for the No. 45 team heading into the postseason.
Given the fact that short tracks have been one of his biggest weaknesses, however, it may be difficult for Reddick to right the ship at Richmond Raceway this coming Saturday night. USA Network is set to provide live coverage of the Cook Out 400 beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss it!
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