From the end of the 2023 Formula 1 season to the beginning of the 2024 season, there were a total of zero driver changes, marking the first time in the history of the sport that that had been the case from one year to the next.
That probably won't be the case from 2026 to 2027. But it might be pretty close.
There has been just one change confirmed so far, and it's a change that's already been made, with Esteban Ocon out at Haas with Rafael Camara taking over.
That was the case in late 2023 as well, when Daniel Ricciardo replaced Nyck de Vries and then took back over from Liam Lawson after missing five races due to injury. So theoretically, this coming offseason could still end up being the second-ever F1 offseason with zero driver changes from the finale to the opener.
Speaking of Lawson, his name had been mentioned as one to watch regarding a potential driver change at Racing Bulls. But the Red Bull sister team confirmed that both Lawson and Arvid Lindblad are set to return next year, amid rumors that Nikola Tsolov could move up to Formula 1.
All things considered, there are very few seats still up for grabs in next year's driver lineup. Here's our full prediction.
2027 F1 driver lineup prediction
Team | Driver |
|---|---|
Mercedes | Kimi Antonelli |
Mercedes | George Russell |
Ferrari | Charles Leclerc |
Ferrari | Lewis Hamilton |
Red Bull | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull | Isack Hadjar |
McLaren | Lando Norris |
McLaren | Oscar Piastri |
Racing Bulls | Liam Lawson |
Racing Bulls | Arvid Lindblad |
Alpine | Pierre Gasly |
Alpine | Franco Colapinto |
Haas | Rafael Camara |
Haas | Ollie Bearman |
Audi | Nico Hulkenberg |
Audi | Gabriel Bortoleto |
Williams | Carlos Sainz Jr. |
Williams | Alex Albon |
Aston Martin | Fernando Alonso |
Aston Martin | Lance Stroll |
Cadillac | Sergio Perez |
Cadillac | Colton Herta |
Ollie Bearman returning to Haas feels like a formality; he's not expected to move anywhere unless it to eventually replace Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari. And despite rumors of Franco Colapinto being dropped early by Alpine, his deal was recently extended.
Audi appear set to move forward with their current duo of Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto, leaving Aston Martin and Cadillac as the only two true question marks.
Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll are both in line to return to the former. There are rumors every year that Alonso, who initially retired in 2018, could call it quits, but all signs point toward him returning to F1 for a seventh year in a row next season, rather than giving up on the Aston Martin project just one year into the new regulations.
Similarly, Stroll always seems to be linked to a move to a leadership/management role around this time of year, but nothing ever materializes. The simple fact is that once he gives up his seat with the team his father Lawrence owns, he won't be driving in F1 again, so there's no reason for him to step away if he wants to keep driving. He's shown no signs of wanting to stop.
Then there's Cadillac, where Valtteri Bottas has a contract to compete in 2027. But we all know how little a "contract" can sometimes mean in Formula 1, with various clauses and options allowing teams to move on from drivers early, and we all know how much Cadillac want to promote Colton Herta.
With Herta having finally secured his FIA Super Licence, the second Cadillac seat might very well be the only seat to change hands from the 2026 season finale to the 2027 season opener.
Three races remain on the 23-race 2026 Formula 1 schedule, starting with the Las Vegas Grand Prix at the Las Vegas Strip Circuit on Saturday, November 21. Apple TV is set to provide live coverage starting at 10:55 p.m. ET.
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