Given the fact that the weather forecasts for NASCAR Cup Series oval qualifying sessions have been iffy pretty much all summer, and the fact that five of such sessions have been canceled in 2026, it's becoming a weekly trend to publish the would-be starting lineup in the event that qualifying is canceled.
Indeed, amid a heat wave in Darlington, South Carolina, AccuWeather is calling for a "very hot and humid [day] with more clouds than sun; a thunderstorm in the afternoon" on Saturday. Cook Out Southern 500 practice is scheduled to get underway at 4:00 p.m. ET, followed by qualifying at 5:10 p.m. ET.
This is particularly notable this weekend because of the fact that the qualifying metric, which is designed to be used to determine qualifying orders, is slightly altered for the postseason.
The two variables remain the same, with each car's rank in the owner standings weighted at 30% and each car's result in the most recent race weight at 70%, but drivers are effectively split into two groups.
The "Chase" drivers are not factored into the metric until all of the non-postseason drivers are slotted in, meaning that they are guaranteed to be the final 16 drivers to qualify for each race. However, they are not guaranteed to line up in the top 16 if qualifying is canceled, as the order, based on all metric scores, is simply reversed.
Here's what the starting lineup would look like for Sunday afternoon's 367-lap race around the four-turn, 1.366-mile (2.198-kilometer) "Lady in Black" if qualifying is unable to take place as planned.
Southern 500 starting lineup if Darlington qualifying is canceled
Order | Driver |
|---|---|
1 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota |
2 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
3 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford |
4 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
5 | Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
6 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford |
7 | Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet |
9 | Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
10 | Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
11 | Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
12 | Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford |
13 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford |
14 | Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford |
15 | Riley Herbst, No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota |
16 | Cole Custer, No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet |
17 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota |
18 | Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
19 | John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
20 | William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
21 | Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
22 | Corey Heim, No. 67 23XI Racing Toyota |
23 | Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
24 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford |
25 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
26 | Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
27 | Ty Dillon, No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
28 | Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
29 | Noah Gragson, No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
30 | A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
31 | Connor Zilisch, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
32 | Austin Hill, No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
33 | Zane Smith, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
34 | Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
35 | Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford |
36 | Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
37 | Cody Ware, No. 51 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet |
38 | Chad Finchum, No. 66 Garage 66 Ford |
USA Network is set to provide live coverage of Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500 from Darlington Raceway beginning at 5:00 p.m. ET. Tune in and don't miss any of the action from the return of the "Chase" postseason format!
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