Unlike under the "win and in", knockout-style playoff format that NASCAR used to crown a Cup Series champion each year from 2014 to 2025, there is no longer a predetermined number of championship contenders heading into the season finale under the new 10-race "Chase" postseason format.
The 16 playoff drivers' point tallies were simply reset to predetermined values based on the point standings from the 26-race regular season to begin the playoffs, and the only changes since then have simply come from the points those drivers have earned in each of the first nine playoff races.
All 16 playoff drivers remained mathematically eligible to win the championship with three races left on the schedule, whereas under the old format, there would have been eight "round of 8" drivers, while the other eight would have been eliminated in the round of 16 and the round of 12, with four out in each three-race round.
But nine of those 16 drivers were eliminated in the season's antepenultimate race at Talladega Superspeedway, leaving just seven, not eight, drivers in contention heading into this past Sunday's race at Martinsville Speedway.
And now four more have been eliminated, leaving just three drivers in contention heading into the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
4 of 6 Kyle Larson challengers eliminated at Martinsville
All drivers not within 76 points of championship leader Kyle Larson have officially been eliminated.
Joe Gibbs Racing's Chase Briscoe fell from 79 points to 84 points behind, Team Penske's Joey Logano fell from 100 points to 103 points behind, teammate Ryan Blaney fell from 107 points to 133 points behind, and 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick only moved from 126 to 125 points behind.
The only drivers other than Larson who are still eligible to win the championship are Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, and neither one did anything close to enough to capitalize on Larson's lackluster Xfinity 500 performance on Sunday.
Larson finished ninth after scoring no stage points. But Bell could only manage a 10th place finish after scoring eight stage points, moving him from 74 points behind to 67 behind. He notably sped in the pits on a pit stop that arguably could have put him in position to win the race due to the timely yellow that accompanied it.
As for Hamlin, he was never a factor at the front after losing all kinds of track position in stage one due to the wrong pit strategy call. After starting from pole, he failed to score any stage points, although he did still manage to finish sixth, despite being involved in a spin with Bell that was triggered by contact on Bell from Logano.
Now Hamlin is 70 points behind Larson, rather than 73 behind – hardly enough to make a real dent.
Race wins pay 55 points and stage wins pay 10, with one additional point up for grabs by running the race's fastest lap. With all drivers who show up to a race guaranteed to score one point, and with Larson having already clinched the head-to-head tiebreakers over both Bell and Hamlin due to the fact that he's won three postseason races (compared to Bell's one and Hamlin's zero), it would take a miracle for either Bell or Hamlin to even come close to coming away with the championship at Homestead.
While the drivers eliminated in Sunday's race might have only included Briscoe, Logano, Blaney, and Reddick, dare we say that you can probably throw Bell and Hamlin into that group as well, even if the math wouldn't necessarily agree.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship is set to be decided in this coming weekend's Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with live coverage set to be provided NBC beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 8. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the season finale!
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