The NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 field is set, with William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Larson set to compete for the title at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday afternoon.
All four drivers should be evenly matched, and each one of them has a uniquely compelling case. It will be fascinating to watch which one of them comes out on top.
Only one of the four drivers already has a championship trophy in his case, and he's the one who it feels like has been given the smallest chance this weekend.
Is Kyle Larson more dangerous than ever? Or will he quietly bring up the rear?
It's been nearly six months since Kyle Larson won a Cup Series race, back on Sunday, May 11 at Kansas Speedway in the 12th event of the season. He's the only Championship 4 driver who didn't win his way into the Championship 4, and for that reason, he hasn't been garnering as much attention as Byron, Hamlin, or Briscoe.
That could be a dangerous thing for the field. It's as if everyone has forgotten who Larson is, and he's just waiting to pounce. He's the best Cup Series driver of his generation, one of the greatest raw talents to ever strap on a helmet. Write him off at your own peril.
Then again, if something really isn't there with the speed of the No. 5 team, there's not a whole lot he'll be able to do about it. Larson has run better during the playoffs than he did in the late summer stretch leading up to them, but he still hasn't been the dominant force we're accustomed to seeing from the past couple years. If there was a magic switch for his group to flip, you'd think it would've come on by now.
Additionally, Phoenix has not been kind to Larson or Hendrick ever since the debut of the Next Gen car in 2022. Byron won there in March 2023, but aside from that, the Ford and Toyota groups have had a leg up on Chevrolet. Joe Gibbs Racing's duo of Hamlin and Briscoe should be expected to have more speed than the Hendrick pair, especially after Joe Gibbs Racing went 1-2 in the spring race this year.
And yet... this is Kyle Freakin' Larson we're talking about. If he can get it done, he'd join Kyle Busch and Joey Logano as the only multi-time champions in the active field. He'd firmly solidify himself as one of the top 10, or top 15 at a minimum, drivers to ever get behind the wheel of a stock car. He'd add even more distance between himself and Byron, or Bell, or Ryan Blaney, or Chase Elliott or any of his other peers who are compared to him. He'd be in a complete class of his own.
This can be a legacy-defining race for Larson. He'll have to overcome some major disadvantages, but if there's anyone who can't ever be counted out, it's him.