The new NASCAR Cup Series Chase postseason format has come under scrutiny for a variety of reasons, even after most fans were allegedly pleased with its return because of the removal of the much-maligned "win and in", knockout-style playoff format that was used each year from 2014 to 2025.
Aside from the obvious complaint that Denny Hamlin, who has already clinched the lead in the full-season point standings, is now a championship longshot, one of the main frustrations that fans have had is that the title could be mathematically secured before the season finale.
It sort of goes without saying that this was always going to be a possibility over a 10-race postseason, after fans complained for years about the guaranteed four-driver Championship 4 title battles being "artificial" and "manufactured".
But you always got the feeling that nobody actually believed it would happen.
Even under the original 10-race Chase format, which was used from 2004 to 2013, every single championship battle came down to the season finale. No championship had been decided with one race to go since 2003.
Kyle Larson had a chance to clinch on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, after entering with a 73-point lead over Hamlin. Drivers can score up to 76 points in each race, with victories worth 55, stage wins worth 10, and the fastest lap worth one.
Kyle Larson fails to clinch NASCAR Cup title at Martinsville
Fortunately for his rivals (and for NASCAR, quite frankly), Larson had a relatively lackluster race, and although his two closest challengers, Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Hamlin and Christopher Bell, failed to capitalize, they did just enough to prevent Larson from clinching the title and thus rendering Homestead-Miami Speedway's season finale totally meaningless from a championship standpoint this coming weekend.
Larson scored no stage points and finished ninth, setting up Bell and Hamlin to potentially pounce. The problem is that Bell could only finish 10th after speeding in the pits and being subsequently spun out (into Hamlin). He did score eight stage points, but that only let him narrow the deficit from 74 points to 67.
And Hamlin scored zero stage points despite starting on pole, falling victim to the same opening-stage strategy call that bit Larson and the No. 5 team. He outscored Larson by just three points on the day with a sixth place finish, moving him from 73 points behind to 70 behind.
Hardly a dent.
Still, the Cup Series does still technically have a three-driver title fight, and it wouldn't have taken much more from Larson on Sunday to totally prevent that.
Because of just how huge his lead is, however, he could technically clinch the championship as early as the end of the first stage at Homestead, as there will be just 66 points up for grabs afterward.
And Bell and Hamlin don't just need to catch him on points; they need to pass him, as Larson already owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over both JGR teammates due to his three playoff wins at Gateway, Kansas, and Talladega. Bell has just one at Darlington, while Hamlin has none, having not won a race since mid-June at Pocono.
All drivers who start each race are guaranteed to score at least one point, meaning that no driver can make up more than 75 points on any other driver in any given race.
The margin for error is about as small as it gets. But at least NASCAR can claim that the championship will come down to the season's final race in its first year under the new format.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship is set to be officially clinched this Sunday, November 8 with the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Live coverage of the season finale is set to be provided by NBC beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET, so begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!
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