There's a very good chance that the Formula 1 world championship and the NASCAR Cup Series championship could be clinched on the same day, Sunday, November 1, even though neither one of their respective seasons is set to end this afternoon.
Under the "win and in", knockout-style playoff format that NASCAR used from 2014 to 2025, the championship was guaranteed to come down to the season finale. Four drivers qualified for the Championship 4 after three rounds of three races, and the highest finisher of those four drivers in the season finale was crowned champion.
This year, there was just one points reset, based strictly on the point standings after the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway. From there, the point totals earned by each of the 16 playoff drivers over the 10 "Chase" postseason races have simply been added to those predetermined point values.
It worked the same way from 2004 to 2013, and every one of those 10 championships also came down to the season finale.
There are 76 points up for grabs in each race, after NASCAR boosted the value of wins from 40 to 55 over the offseason. And with two races remaining, Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson, who no longer even has a chance to lead the series in total points scored all season, leads the standings by 73 points over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, who has actually scored 98 more points all season than any other driver.
It's entirely possible that Larson could be crowned champion this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, leaving the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway effectively meaningless from the standpoint of the championship.
It begs the question as to whether or not this is really what NASCAR fans wanted when they complained for years that it was time to get rid of "win and in". Past championship battles were viewed as artificial and manufactured, and while the return to the Chase wasn't quite the same as a return to the full-season format from pre-2004, it was viewed as more of a legitimate way of crowning a champion.
After the race at Phoenix Raceway two weekends ago, we published the would-be standings if "win and in" had never been abolished.
Needless to say, they looked a lot different. None of the drivers in the top three in 2026's 2025-era standings were actually in the top four of the real standings, and Phoenix winner Tyler Reddick, despite only being seventh in reality, would have punched his Championship 4 ticket with his Phoenix win, despite it being his first win in six months.
Additionally, Larson would have effectively been in a must-win situation, the same as teammate William Byron, even though Larson had won two playoff races while the winless Byron exited Phoenix both 14th in the actual standings and 14th in total points scored across the season's first 33 races.
Here's a look at what the standings would currently look like under the postseason format that was used a year ago, following Larson's Talladega Superspeedway one week ago.
Current NASCAR playoff standings under 'win and in'
Rank | Driver | Points | Gap | Cutoff | Actual position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kyle Larson | 4097 | 0 | LOCKED IN | 1st (+73) |
1 | Tyler Reddick | 4097 | 0 | LOCKED IN | 7th (-126) |
3 | Denny Hamlin | 4090 | -7 | +4 | 2nd (-73) |
4 | Joey Logano | 4087 | -10 | +1 | 5th (-100) |
5 | Ryan Blaney | 4086 | -11 | -1 | 6th (-107) |
6 | Chase Briscoe | 4083 | -14 | -4 | 4th (-79) |
7 | William Byron | 4071 | -26 | -16 | 11th (-214) |
8 | Christopher Bell | 4066 | -31 | -21 | 3rd (-74) |
The Martinsville race would be the round of 8 finale, and any one of the six drivers not locked in could win their way in to create a tight points battle for the final Championship 4 spot. On the flip side, it could be an intense six-driver battle for two spots on points. Nobody is truly in a must-win situation after Talladega.
Instead, Larson can effectively ride around outside the top 10 and still be comfortable not only getting to the Championship 4 but potentially winning the championship.
We're not saying that NASCAR fans want NASCAR to go back to "win and in". Quite frankly, if you called past Championship 4 championship battles manufactured and artificial, you've sort of relinquished your right to complain if a championship ends up being a runaway under a format that is quite literally designed to enable that possibility.
But anybody who is on social media has seen over the past several weeks that fans predictably aren't happy with the Chase format now either, despite claiming to love it when it was implemented.
Who could have seen that coming?
Larson is set to have a chance to clinch his third career championship and second in a row this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, with live coverage of the Xfinity 500 set to begin at 2:00 p.m. ET on NBC. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the 2026 season's penultimate race!
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