Two races remain on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, following this past weekend's Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway, and 24 drivers remain in championship contention after five were eliminated at the four-turn, 0.75-mile (1.207-kilometer) Richmond, Virginia oval.
Every driver currently below the cut line between 16th and 17th can mathematically end up eliminated in this coming Sunday afternoon's Dollar Tree 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, since there is no more "win and in" with points and points alone set to determine the entire 16-driver "Chase" postseason field.
And seeing as how nobody below the cut line is closer than 50 points away from it, the entire playoff field being set even before the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway might not be as far-fetched as it seems.
8 NASCAR Cup Series drivers can be eliminated at New Hampshire
Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen currently occupies the 16th and final spot inside the provisional playoff picture, after he was passed by Team Penske's Austin Cindric at Richmond. He is 50 points ahead of RFK Racing's Ryan Preece for that spot, with Preece's 25-point penalty from early May potentially in position to come back to bite him in a big way.
Preece is one of the eight drivers who can be eliminated in this coming weekend's 301-lap race around the four-turn, 1.058-mile (1.703-kilometer) "Magic Mile" in Loudon, New Hampshire, since there is a chance he can fall to more than 76 points below the cut line.
Each driver can score up to 76 points in an individual race: 55 for winning, 10 for winning stage one, 10 for winning stage two, and one for running the fastest lap. All drivers who compete are guaranteed to score at least one point, however, so nobody can make up more than 75 points on anybody else.
Aside from Preece, the others facing elimination this weekend are Trackhouse Racing's Ross Chastain (-63), RFK Racing's Brad Keselowski (-78), Legacy Motor Club's Erik Jones (-81), Spire Motorsports' Michael McDowell (-104), Kaulig Racing's A.J. Allmendinger (-125), and Front Row Motorsports teammates Todd Gilliland (-139) and Zane Smith (-149).
Allmendinger, Gilliland, and Smith were all able to stave off elimination at Richmond, but they all effectively need to win both of the remaining regular season races to even have a chance to qualify at this point.
At 63 points behind, Chastain is the only driver other than Preece who technically can afford to lose ground to the cut line in Loudon but remain championship eligible heading into the Daytona regular season finale, but that would put him in a must-win situation to even have the smallest of chances.
Former NASCAR champion facing elimination
Keselowski is the only former series champion currently on the outside looking in. Team Penske's Ryan Blaney (+337) is locked in, Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott (+178) is locked in, and both Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson (+143) and Team Penske's Joey Logano (+142) are the top two drivers not yet locked in.
Even at under 152 points ahead, they are effectively locked in as long they show up to either one of the final two regular season races on the 2026 schedule, as there aren't there aren't nine different drivers who can all jump them with only two more wins up for grabs before the playoffs.
With no more "win and in", gone are the days when a single upset win was enough to propel a driver into that 16-driver playoff field with fewer points than a driver he knocked out.
Aside from Cindric (+57) and SVG (+50), the only driver above the cut line within 100 points of it is 23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace (+70). So while seven playoff spots have been mathematically secured, it's safe to say that 13 of the 16 spots are effectively locked up. And that number could very well become 16 at the "Magic Mile" on Sunday.
Live coverage of the Dollar Tree 301 from New Hampshire Motor Speedway is scheduled to begin at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday (although 3:01 p.m. ET would have been more appropriate) on USA Network.
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