After 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick won the first three races of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season and added two more wins over his next six starts, his points lead seemed insurmountable.
Even over the next three races, which marked his first three-race winless streak of the season, he extended his points lead to 129 points over Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin.
But the regular season championship proved not to be a foregone conclusion for the driver of the No. 45 Toyota. Hamlin outscored him in each of the next six races, which included three in a row that Hamlin won, and took the points lead from Reddick in the season's 18th race at Sonoma Raceway in late June.
Hamlin did not look back after that, securing the regular season championship even before the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway.
NASCAR points lead up for grabs at Bristol
But his 89-point regular season title-winning margin over Team Penske's Ryan Blaney was reset to 25 points to begin the 10-race postseason, based on a set of predetermined values that NASCAR announced when it was confirmed that they would be replacing the old "win and in" format with an iteration of the "Chase" format that was initially used from 2004 to 2013.
Hamlin retained his points lead in the postseason opener at Darlington Raceway despite a disappointing 18th place finish, with teammate Christopher Bell moving to second in points after earning his first win of the year.
Hamlin finished in a quiet ninth at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway following a pit road issue, but he again stayed on top of the standings after the only driver to truly capitalize on his lackluster afternoon was Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson. Larson moved to second, nine points behind Hamlin, with his own first win of the year.
Now the series is set to head to Bristol Motor Speedway, where Larson has won three times since 2021. He has led 1,157 of the 2,005 laps at the track over its four most recent races, and that stretch includes two victories, both in which he led at least 411 of 500 laps.
It's entirely possible that the points lead changes hands for the first time since June this weekend, especially because race wins are worth 15 more points this year than they were a year ago.
Larson is listed as the +400 favorite to win the 500-lap race around the four-turn, 0.533-mile (0.858-kilometer) high-banked Bristol, Tennessee oval at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Hamlin listed closely behind at +500. Blaney is listed at +550, April Bristol winner Ty Gibbs is listed at +600, and Bell, who won the Bristol night race a year ago, is listed at +700.
Bell sits 18 points behind Hamlin in third, with Blaney at 33 behind in fourth. Four other drivers have a mathematical chance of taking the points lead at Bristol, although they would need a lot of things to fall their way.
Full Bristol race odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are always subject to change.
USA Network is set to provide live coverage of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race from Bristol Motor Speedway starting at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday, September 19.
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