After the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season's second, third, and fourth races at EchoPark Speedway (Atlanta Motor Speedway), Circuit of the Americas (COTA), and Phoenix Raceway, respectively, at least three drivers who entered inside the top 16 in the point standings, and thus in the provisional playoff picture, dropped out of it.
After Sunday's Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, just one driver who started the afternoon inside the top 16 in the standings found himself on the outside looking in by the time the checkered flag flew.
Kaulig Racing's A.J. Allmendinger started the 267-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Las Vegas, Nevada sitting in 13th place in the standings after a consistent start to the season which saw him post four results between ninth and 19th. He was six points above the provisional playoff cutoff.
Allmendinger did not have a terrible race at Las Vegas, but his 24th place finish was still his worst of the season, and he now finds himself in a 16th place tie in the point standings. But the driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet is on the wrong end of the tiebreaker.
A.J. Allmendinger falls below NASCAR playoff cut line at Las Vegas
Allmendinger is tied for the 16th and final playoff spot with Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen and Spire Motorsports' Daniel Suarez. But he is scored 18th, as van Gisbergen owns the tiebreaker for 16th, due to the fact that he has recorded the best finish of the three, that being a runner-up finish at COTA.
Suarez is scored ahead of Allmendinger for 17th due to his fifth place finish at Atlanta, as Allmendinger's season-high finish is only ninth at COTA.
It was RFK Racing's Ryan Preece, who would have qualified for the 2025 playoffs had the new 2026 "Chase" format been implemented a year ago, who displaced Allmendinger inside the top 16 with a strong run at Las Vegas on an afternoon which saw him score points in stages one and two before finishing the race in 11th.
Preece's best finish of the season is also only ninth, but he has reeled off four straight top 18 results. He now finds himself eight points above the cut line.
With nine drivers sitting within 20 points of the postseason cutoff (in either direction), don't be surprised if there are more changes to the provisional Chase field in the weeks to come.
The 2026 season's sixth race is the Goodyear 400, and it is set to be shown live on Fox Sports 1 from Darlington Raceway starting at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 22. Begin a free trial of FuboTV and catch all of the action!