There is just one race remaining on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and there are still three drivers mathematically in contention to win the championship.
That being said, Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson would need absolutely everything to go wrong in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and everything to go right for either Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell or Denny Hamlin, to even have a chance to not leave the Straight Talk Wireless as a three-time champion and the first back-to-back champion since Jimmie Johnson won five in a row from 2006 to 2010.
With 76 points up for grabs in Sunday's 267-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) oval in Homestead, Florida, Larson owns a 67-point lead over Bell and a 70-point lead over Hamlin.
What would a Championship 4 look like in 2026?
Under the postseason format that was used before the pre-2026 overhaul, however, Homestead would be guaranteed to produce a four-driver championship fight, with the Championship 4 set after three rounds of three races to open up the 10-race postseason.
We documented after Tyler Reddick's win at Phoenix Raceway three races ago that that win would have locked him into the Championship 4 under the old format, after he would have been able to advance to the round of 8 on points.
Larson would have punched his own ticket as well, by winning at Talladega Superspeedway the following weekend, and teammate William Byron would have done the same with his win on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.
That's right; despite entering Phoenix 14th in both the real standings and the full-season standings, Byron, who hadn't yet won a race in 2026, would have done enough through the first six races of the playoffs to advance to the round of 8, and his Championship 4 berth would have been his fourth in a row, dating back to 2023. He was the only driver who ended the Championship 4 era having even recorded back-to-back Championship 4 appearances.
Here's what the final round of 8 standings would have looked like, had NASCAR never modified the postseason format, provided all other things had remained equal.
Rank | Driver | Points | Gap | Cutoff | Actual position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | William Byron | 4147 | 0 | LOCKED IN | 1st (+73) |
2 | Tyler Reddick | 4126 | -21 | LOCKED IN | 7th (-126) |
3 | Kyle Larson | 4125 | -211 | +4 | 2nd (-73) |
4 | Denny Hamlin | 4121 | -10 | +1 | 5th (-100) |
5 | Joey Logano | 4112 | -11 | -1 | 6th (-107) |
6 | Chase Briscoe | 4106 | -14 | -4 | 4th (-79) |
7 | Christopher Bell | 4101 | -26 | -16 | 11th (-214) |
8 | Ryan Blaney | 4088 | -31 | -21 | 3rd (-74) |
Reddick, Larson, and Byron would have locked themselves into the Championship 4 with wins, with Byron ironically ending the round with the most points due to his perfect 76-point outing at Martinsville, while it would have been Hamlin doing just enough to earn the fourth and final spot on points.
The Championshp 4 would consist of three of the same four drivers who made it in 2025, with the only difference being Reddick getting in instead of Chase Briscoe.
Those four drivers would all have effectively had their point tallies reset to 5,000, and they would have been ineligible to earn stage points at Homestead. The highest finisher of the four would have been crowned champion.
Alas, that is no longer the format that NASCAR uses. Instead, the Homestead race feels like a mere formality in the coronation of Larson, and the format that has allegedly brought consistency back into the equation has already come under plenty of scrutiny for doing the opposite, as it's actually Hamlin who is guaranteed to finish the 2026 season with the most points scored among all drivers. Larson is fourth, 178 points behind.
Homestead-Miami Speedway is scheduled to host the season-ending Straight Talk Wireless 400 beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, November 8. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action to conclude the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season!
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