At this point, it's expected: there is rain in the forecast for Saturday at Kansas Speedway, putting yet another NASCAR Cup Series playoff qualifying session at risk.
Qualifying has been canceled for two of the first three postseason races of the 2026 season, after five oval qualifying sessions were canceled during the regular season. Across the 2024 and 2025 seasons combined, there were just four total cancelations.
According to AccuWeather, there is a 55% chance of rain and thunderstorms at the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Kansas City, Kansas oval, and qualifying is scheduled to commence at 11:10 a.m. ET (following practice at 10:00 a.m. ET).
When qualifying is canceled, NASCAR simply reverts to the qualifying metric to determine the full 36-car starting lineup. Note that whether a driver is a playoff driver or a non-playoff driver is not factored into the metric, even though that is the case for the qualifying orders.
The metric is simply based 30% on the owner standings and 70% on the results of the most recent race, so it's no surprise that Team Penske's Joey Logano and Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson, the top two finishers at Bristol Motor Speedway and two of the top three drivers in the standings, would share the front row to get Sunday's 267-lap Hollywood Casino 400 underway.
Until qualifying is officially canceled, we can all hold out hope that the increasingly rare event of "NASCAR Cup Series qualifying session" actually happens this weekend. But if not, we're here to save you the wait; here's what the starting lineup would look like.
NASCAR starting lineup at Kansas if qualifying is canceled
Order | Driver |
|---|---|
1 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford |
2 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
3 | Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
4 | Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
5 | Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
6 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
7 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota |
8 | William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
9 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford |
10 | Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford |
11 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford |
12 | Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford |
13 | Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
14 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
15 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota |
16 | Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford |
17 | Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
18 | Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
19 | Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
20 | Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
21 | Noah Gragson, No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
22 | Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
23 | Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
24 | A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
25 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford |
26 | John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
27 | Connor Zilisch, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
28 | Zane Smith, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
29 | Cole Custer, No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet |
30 | Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
31 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet |
32 | Austin Hill, No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
33 | Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
34 | Riley Herbst, No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota |
35 | Cody Ware, No. 51 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet |
36 | Ty Dillon, No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
For what it's worth, NASCAR has yet to actually postpone a Cup Series race this year, although three races did have their start times moved up. Sunday's forecast calls for an 84% chance of rain, but with that number decreasing throughout the afternoon.
The Hollywood Casino 400 is set to go green shortly after 3:00 p.m. ET, with live coverage from Kansas Speedway set to be provided by USA Network.
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