The NASCAR Cup Series is now just one race away from the start of the first "Chase" postseason since 2013, after NASCAR opted over the offseason to do away the old and much-maligned "win and in" knockout format that had been used from 2014 to 2025.
The major difference between the old format and the new format is the fact that there are no more points resets during the postseason itself. There is one reset after the regular season, whereas the old playoffs featured 10 races across four rounds, with resets after the third, sixth, and ninth races, prior to the winner-take-all Championship 4.
The major difference between qualifying under the old format and qualifying under the new format is that the top 16 drivers in the regular season standings are now locked in, regardless of who has or hasn't won; there is no longer a way for a driver to win his way in from outside the top 16.
There are also no more playoff points; seeding is based strictly based on the regular season standings, and all bonus point values are predetermined based on those standings.
So it's kind of poetic that the same 16 drivers currently inside the provisional playoff picture are the exact same 16 drivers who would be inside the provisional playoff picture if the old format were still in place.
New NASCAR format could produce the same 16 playoff drivers
There have been 10 points eligible drivers who have found victory lane at some point during the first 25 races of the 26-race regular season, and the lowest of those 10 is Trackhouse Racing's Shane van Gisbergen in 16th. Yes, 23XI Racing's Corey Heim has won twice, but he wouldn't be playoff eligible anyway, since he's not eligible for points.
Several drivers from outside the top 16 have come close, most recently with Wood Brothers Racing's Josh Berry (29th) finishing third on Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but nobody has actually pulled off a true upset victory yet this year.
That could very well change at Daytona International Speedway in this Saturday night's regular season finale. But wouldn't it be kind of funny if the format change has zero impact whatsoever on what the playoff field looks like?
Of course, either way, there will still be differences, simply because of how bonus points are now awarded. Just as one example, regular season champion Denny Hamlin has clinched a 100-point bonus (25 more than second place) for winning the regular season championship. Under the old format, he'd be in line to score just 40: 20 for his four wins, five for his five stage wins, and 15 for his regular season title.
Additionally, the cut line, which is currently between SVG in 16th and RFK Racing's Ryan Preece in 17th, would actually be between Team Penske's Austin Cindric in 15th and Preece in 17th, since SVG would have already locked himself in with his two victories.
Cindric is 44 points ahead of Preece, while SVG is 31 points ahead. And under the old setup, that might not even be the battle for the final spot, as somebody far below the cut line who has already been mathematically eliminated from the top 16 could technically win his way in at Daytona.
So there are still some notable differences.
And it's very possible that Preece could still get in on points, while two-race winner van Gisbergen finds himself on the outside looking in anyway.
But at the end of the day, the 16 playoff drivers might very well end up being the 16 drivers who would have qualified for the playoffs under the old format as well.
Will that prove true at Daytona? Tune in to NBC at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday, August 29 for the live broadcast of the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Begin a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action from the "World Center of Racing"!
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