I'm sure we weren't alone in picking Prema Racing rookie Robert Shwartzman to be one of the drivers in the Bump Day discussion heading into qualifying weekend for the 109th running of the Indy 500, or even picking both Prema cars as two of the most likely entries to end up on the 11th and final row in this year's field of 33.
Sure, we did pick Dale Coyne Racing rookie Jacob Abel to miss the race, and that was never in doubt at all this week (but seriously, what in the world was Rinus VeeKay doing on Sunday?). The Miller High Life livery got a ton of hype, but a livery alone does not generate speed, and Abel needed a lot more than the speed he had.
But in our pre-practice week power rankings, ahead of Abel at No. 34, we had Shwartzman at No. 33, and looking back on our blurb about him, I can confidently say that I have never had a worse take in 10 years covering motorsport.
"Robert Shwartzman's lack of oval experience, coupled with Prema Racing's inexperience, slow pace, and slew of issues to start the 2025 IndyCar season, makes the No. 83 Chevrolet one of the popular picks to miss this year's Indy 500. This team could be in for a 2019 McLaren-sized rude awakening if they don't figure something out, and fast."
It turns out the "rude awakening" was ours, and the rest of the paddock's.
Lack of oval experience? Prema Racing's inexperience? Slow pace? Heck, at this point, they hadn't even missed almost the entire first day of practice yet. All that did was supposedly reinforce these beliefs.
Yet none of that – not even the shock preseason departure of renowned engineer Michael Cannon – was enough to stop what was coming next from the No. 83 Chevrolet.
After the first day of qualifying, the prediction wasn't a total disaster. Our top five – Josef Newgarden, Alex Palou, Pato O'Ward, Scott McLaughlin, and Scott Dixon – were all inside the top five on the speed charts, followed by Shwartzman in sixth. Upsets happen, and every year there are surprises.
So be it.
But then the 25-year-old Israeli driver advanced from the Top 12 session to the Firestone Fast Six and took the pole position in his first ever oval start for a team making their first ever oval appearance at the greatest race track in the world, and for the "Greatest Spectacle in Racing".
You simply cannot make this up.
And it wasn't particularly close, either. His four-lap average around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Speedway, Indiana oval was 232.790 miles per hour, more than three tenths of a mile per hour faster than second place starter Takuma Sato, a two-time Indy 500 winner, of Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
Meyer Shank Racing's Felix Rosenqvist, who earned the right to be the final qualifier in the Firestone Fast Six after posting the top speed in the Top 12 qualifying session, never had a chance, with his fastest lap being slower than Shwartzman's average.
Shwartzman's own top lap speed was 233.116 miles per hour.
The 109th running of the Indy 500 is set to be shown live on Fox from Indianapolis Motor Speedway beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, May 25. Start a free trial of FuboTV now and don't miss any of the action!