All early indications point toward Mercedes being the team to beat ahead of the 2026 Formula 1 season, and that is no longer based merely on speculation stemming from early 2024.
Mercedes' emergence as favorites to win their first constructor championship since 2021 has resulted in George Russell emerging as the preseason betting favorite to win his first world championship.
It has even resulted in 19-year-old second-year teammate Kimi Antonelli shooting up the board and emerging as one of the world championship favorites himself.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Russell is listed at +225, ahead of Red Bull's four-time world champion Max Verstappen at +300 and Ferrari teammates Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton at +350 and +800, respectively.
Behind them? Antonelli, McLaren's reigning world champion Lando Norris, and McLaren's Oscar Piastri are tied at +1000, with Antonelli trending up.
Yet there was uncertainty surrounding the lineup of the Silver Arrows entering the 2026 season as late as late 2025, and although both Russell and Antonelli did sign contract extensions, neither one is under contract for 2027.
Both Mercedes drivers already on the hot seat
That's right; two of Formula 1's world championship favorites are on the hot seat entering a year in which they are expected to regularly win races.
It's no secret that Toto Wolff has had his eyes on Max Verstappen, even going back to before Verstappen's Formula 1 career began in 2015. With Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg in the lineup, Wolff simply had no room for the Dutchman.
Red Bull did, and they took advantage. Verstappen spent the 2015 season, at the age of 17, with sister team Toro Rosso. He got the call up to Red Bull just four races into 2016 and earned his first career Grand Prix victory in his first start.
But before the 2024 season began, cracks in Red Bull's armor started to reveal themselves, and after a two-year stretch during which Verstappen won 34 races, more than any other driver in Formula 1 history ever had won over three years, there was immediate speculation about Verstappen's future, even though he already has a Red Bull contract that runs through 2028.
With Verstappen's contract said to have a number of opt-out clauses, Wolff reportedly tried to sign him for 2025, following the announcement that Hamilton was heading to Ferrari, but he failed to do so. That resulted in Antonelli, the so-called "next Max Verstappen", being brought in as Russell's new teammate.
The delays in contract extensions for both Russell and Antonelli for 2026 were largely rumored to be down to Wolff's continued pursuit of Verstappen's services. Once Verstappen was fully committed to Red Bull for the upcoming season, those extensions were confirmed, which was probably no coincidence.
The 2026 season is a big season in Formula 1 for pretty much everybody on the grid, given the fact that it is set to kick off a new era of regulations. Nobody knows for certain what the pecking order will look like, and even Russell's status as the favorite is about as fragile of a "favorite" status as Formula 1 has seen over the past decade and a half.
All eyes are on the new Mercedes power unit, and particularly how it stacks up to Red Bull Powertrains' new power unit, in partnership with Ford. Mercedes dominated from the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014, while Red Bull took over at the top from the start of the ground effect era in 2022.
Suffice it to say there is lot riding on who gets it right this time around.
Verstappen knows that if Red Bull can't give him a competitive race car, he will have no shortage of teams willing to hand him a blank check that could break financial records not just in Formula 1, but in all of sports.
And he also knows the specifics of his own active contract, details that could allow him to seek that blank check as early as 2027, even having already been signed for $55 million per year through 2028.
Aston Martin has been the hot name linked to Verstappen, given their new partnership with Honda and their signing of former Red Bull designer Adrian Newey. Plus, Fernando Alonso is set to turn 45 before the 2026 season ends, and even Lawrence Stroll may not be able to justify keeping his son Lance on the roster if he can persuade Verstappen to sign.
But even aside from the fact that this new era has started out in completely disastrous fashion for Aston Martin, the general consensus is still that Wolff will stop at nothing if Verstappen finally becomes available, and the best way to illustrate that is that pesky fact that Russell and Antonelli are pending free agents yet again.
Yet Verstappen's own interest may very well directly correlate with the success of the drivers he could replace.
It almost feels like anything shy of a world championship for Russell, now a five-time Grand Prix winner, in 2026, and he could be replaced. If he does win it, Antonelli could be out. Yet both drivers would inherently need to perform well enough to justify Verstappen believing Mercedes have a strong enough car to make him want to jump ship.
In particular, Antonelli needs to step up, in a big way. For as highly touted as he is, the gap between himself and Russell was obvious throughout the 2025 season. Wrecking Verstappen out on the opening lap of the Austrian Grand Prix certainly did him no favors.
He scored three podium finishes; Russell scored nine, with two victories. Russell also notably won a race in his first Mercedes season in 2022, despite Mercedes producing a significantly stronger car in 2025. Antonelli did not.
On one hand, Antonelli's struggles were understandable; he is only set to enter his second year in Formula 1. Russell is set to enter his eighth, and his fifth for Mercedes, so even his first season with Mercedes was already his fourth at this level.
But the fact that Wolff didn't jump at the chance to put Antonelli in the car once Hamilton's departure was confirmed says everything you need to know, and not just that perhaps the Italian driver was rushed to a top seat.
It says that if Verstappen is available, nobody is safe. And there is no team for which that is more obvious than Wolff's Mercedes.
The 2026 Formula 1 season is scheduled to get underway on Saturday, March 7 with the Australian Grand Prix, with live coverage set to be provided by Apple TV at 10:55 p.m. ET.