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IndyCar: 2018 championship prediction

By Asher Fair

SAUSALITO, CA - AUGUST 27: The Astor Cup is displayed next to the Golden Gate Bridge on August 27, 2015 in Sausalito, California. Five Indy cars, lead by Marco Andretti in the #25 car, drove over the Golden Gate Bridge with the Astor Cup ahead of the Verizon IndyCar Series at Sonoma Raceway. The crossing also paid tribute to Verizon IndyCar Series driver Justin Wilson, who died on August 24 following injuries sustained at the ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway on August 23. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
SAUSALITO, CA - AUGUST 27: The Astor Cup is displayed next to the Golden Gate Bridge on August 27, 2015 in Sausalito, California. Five Indy cars, lead by Marco Andretti in the #25 car, drove over the Golden Gate Bridge with the Astor Cup ahead of the Verizon IndyCar Series at Sonoma Raceway. The crossing also paid tribute to Verizon IndyCar Series driver Justin Wilson, who died on August 24 following injuries sustained at the ABC Supply 500 at Pocono Raceway on August 23. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /
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When all 17 races on the 2018 IndyCar schedule are in the books in September, which driver will end up being this season’s champion?

The 2018 IndyCar season is right around the corner, as the season opener, the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, is now just days away. With the six-month offseason between the 2017 and 2018 seasons almost completely in the books, now is a great time to predict which driver will win this season’s championship.

In the field of 20 full-time IndyCar drivers this season, seven are former champions. Of those seven former champions, five have won the championship once. Those five drivers are listed below.

Active one-time IndyCar champions

  • Tony Kanaan — 2004 champion
  • Ryan Hunter-Reay — 2012 champion
  • Will Power — 2014 champion
  • Simon Pagenaud — 2016 champion
  • Josef Newgarden — 2017 champion

The other two former champions are both four-time champions. Those two drivers are Scott Dixon and Sebastien Bourdais. Dixon’s championships were all won in IndyCar in the 2003 season, the 2008 season, the 2013 season and the 2015 season, while Bourdais’ were all won in Champ Car in the 2004 season, the 2005 season, the 2006 season and the 2007 season.

No IndyCar driver has won his second championship in the sport since Dario Franchitti won his in the 2009 season, and no active driver has won his second championship in the sport since the 2008 season when Scott Dixon won his.

Expect that trend to continue with a new IndyCar champion in the 2018 season, making it three new champions in a row, four in the last five seasons and five in the last seven seasons, and expect it to continue with 26-year-old Alexander Rossi.

Rossi is set to drive the #27 Honda for Andretti Autosport after driving the #98 Honda for Andretti Herta Autosport in his first two seasons in the sport. With a new universal aero kit set to be introduced to IndyCar competition in the 2018 season, expect Rossi to thrive in his Honda-powered car. Honda struggled from an aerodynamic standpoint in the aero kit era, while Chevrolet dominated. With the aerodynamic playing field level now and Honda still with a slight horsepower advantage, expect Rossi to come out on top in the championship standings.

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In the 2016 season, his rookie season, Rossi finished in 11th place in the championship standings. However, his only two top 5 finishes that season, including his Indianapolis 500 win that many people deemed as a fluke, came in the two double points races. Therefore, his position in the standings may have appeared to be slightly inflated.

In the 2017 season, Rossi racked up five top 5 finishes, including a win at Watkins Glen, and finished in 7th place in the championship standings despite the fact that he finished in 7th and 21st in the double points races. He was eligible to win the championship heading into the season finale at Sonoma.

At the very least, Rossi should be in that position again in the 2018 season. However, expect him to have a better season leading up to that point and then prevail as the sport’s champion.

Next: Top 10 IndyCar drivers of all-time

Will Alexander Rossi win his first career IndyCar championship in the 2018 season, or will another driver emerge as the best in the sport by the time the season concludes at Sonoma Raceway in mid-September? Follow IndyCar throughout the entire season to find out. Start by tuning in to the season opener, the Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, on Sunday, March 11th.