NASCAR Cup Series: Alex Bowman must win at Kansas to advance to round of 8

To advance to the third round of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the round of 8, Alex Bowman must win the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.

Just one race remains on the schedule in the second of four rounds of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the round of 12. This race is the Hollywood Casino 400, which is scheduled to take place this Sunday, October 21 at Kansas Speedway.

Of the four drivers who currently sit below the round of 8 cut line, three can still qualify for the round of 8 without winning the 267-lap race around the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Kansas Speedway oval in Kansas City, Kansas.

These three drivers are Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney as well as Chip Ganassi Racing’s Kyle Larson, who currently sit 18 points, 22 points and 26 points below the round of 8 cut line, respectively.

The one driver who currently sits below the round of 8 cut line and must win the Hollywood Casino 400 to advance to the round of 8 is Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman.

Bowman, who was one of the four drivers who many people predicted would not even advance to the round of 12, opened up the round of 12 with two disappointing results, this digging himself into a huge hole heading into the round’s third and final race.

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The driver of the #88 Chevrolet finished in 28th place in the opening race of the round of 12 at Dover International Speedway, and he followed that up by finishing the in 33rd in the second race of the round at Talladega Superspeedway.

As a result, Bowman currently sits 68 points behind Furniture Row Racing’s Martin Truex Jr., who is the eighth and final driver who currently sits above the round of 8 cut line.

A maximum of 60 points are on the table for each driver in each race, and a driver can only score 60 points by winning stages one and two (10 points each) and the race itself (40 points). If Bowman scores 60 points, he could only possibly be the winner of the race, which would cause him to advance to the round of 8 regardless of his point total.

However, assuming that Bowman does not win the race to clinch a berth in the round of 8, he can only score a maximum of 55 points in it (10 points for winning stage one, 10 points for winning stage two and 35 points for finishing the race in second place).

This means that there is no possible way for the 25-year-old Tucson, Arizona native to outscore Truex Jr. by more than 68 points to clinch a berth in the round of 8 based on his point total. As a result, the formula is simple; if Bowman earns his first career Cup Series victory in this Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway, he will clinch a berth in the round of 8. If he does not, he will not.

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Will Alex Bowman win the Hollywood Casino 400 to advance to the round of 8 of the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs? Tune in to NBC at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 21 for the live broadcast of the race from Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas to find out.

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