NASCAR Cup Series: Is Kyle Busch’s lead over the cut line safe?

Kyle Busch enters the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series round of 8 finale at ISM Raceway a total of 28 points above the Championship 4 cut line. Is his lead safe?

Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick opened up the third round of the four-round, 10-race 2018 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, the round of 8, by winning the races at Martinsville Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway, respectively, to clinch berths in the Championship 4.

Now just one race remains on the round of 8 schedule before the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday, November 18. This one race is the Can-Am 500, which is scheduled to take place on Sunday, November 11 at ISM Raceway in Avondale, Arizona.

Of the six round of 8 drivers who have not yet clinched berths in the Championship 4, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch is the highest in the playoff picture. Sitting in third place in the playoff picture, the 2015 Cup Series champion has a 28-point lead over the Championship 4 cut line. Because he sits in third, he is not on the bubble.

His brother, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kurt Busch, is the driver who sits 28 points behind him in fifth place in the playoff picture.

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But while a 28-point lead seems pretty sizable and certainly is, especially with Kyle Busch being one of the most prolific stage point-scorers in the Cup Series, is it a safe enough lead for him?

The truth is, it is anything but safe.

In the current playoff format, wins automatically qualify drivers for the next round of the playoffs no matter what the next round is.

This means that if one of the four drivers who are currently below the Championship 4 cut line, including Kurt Busch, Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott and Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer, manages to win the 312-lap race around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) ISM Raceway oval, the Championship 4 cut line will move up by one spot.

This would provisionally move Kyle Busch to the bubble in fourth place in the playoff picture. The driver who currently sits in that position is defending Cup Series champion Martin Truex Jr. of Furniture Row Racing.

Truex Jr. trails Busch by only three points heading into the round of 8 finale.

This means that a win by either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer in the Can-Am 500, which is certainly possible considering that these drivers have combined to win seven races this season and three races since the start of the round of 12, would result in the fourth and final Championship 4 spot going to either Kyle Busch or Truex Jr. and that it would come down to a points battle between the two drivers to determine who would get the spot.

Of course, Kurt Busch and Elliott can still technically get into the Championship 4 based on their point totals, as they trail Truex Jr. by 25 points and 39 points, respectively while trailing Kyle Busch by 28 points and 42 points, respectively. However, the likelihood of this happening is overwhelmingly small because of the fact that these deficits are as large as they are.

Meanwhile, Almirola and Bowyer have no other option but winning when it comes to advancing to the Championship 4, as they cannot possibly advance as a result of their point totals.

Truex Jr.’s better finish in the first two round of 8 races so far is his second place finish in the race at Martinsville Speedway. Busch’s better finish is his fourth place finish in the same race. Truex Jr.’s other finish in the round of 8 is his ninth place finish in the race a Texas Motor Speedway. Busch finished this race in 17th.

As a result, Truex Jr. will clinch the tiebreaker over Kyle Busch assuming that Busch does not finish in second place in the race at ISM Raceway. This means that if Truex Jr. outscores Busch by at least three points in the Can-Am 500 and either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer wins the race, Kyle Busch would fail to qualify for the Championship 4 for the first time since he failed to do so in the 2014 season.

If Kyle Busch finishes the race in second place, which would make the tiebreaker become each driver’s second best finish in the round of 8, and Truex Jr. finishes it in fourth or higher, Truex Jr. would also clinch the tiebreaker over Busch, as a fourth place finish would cause the tiebreaker to become each driver’s third best finish in the round of 8.

This would also mean that if Truex Jr. outscores Busch by at least three points in the race and either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola, or Bowyer wins it, Kyle Busch would fail to qualify for the Championship 4.

If Kyle Busch finishes the race in second place and Truex Jr. finishes it in fifth or lower, Busch would clinch the tiebreaker over Truex Jr. by way of a better second best finish in the round of 8. As a result, Busch would be eliminated if Truex Jr. outscores him by at least four points in the race and either Kurt Busch, Elliott, Almirola or Bowyer wins it.

So no, Kyle Busch’s 28-point lead over the Championship 4 cut line is not what you would call “safe”, and it is not even close.

Will Kyle Busch’s lead over the 2018 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 cut line heading into the third and final race of the round of 8 prove to be safe enough to advance him to the Championship 4 assuming he does not win the Can-Am 500? Be sure to tune in to the live broadcast of this race from ISM Raceway on NBC at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 11 to find out.