NASCAR Cup Series: Should Kyle Busch be concerned?

Kyle Busch’s last few races have not gone according to plan. Should he be concerned as the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs approach?

You never want to make enemies in the NASCAR Cup Series, especially with those who have nothing to lose when it comes to potential payback.

That may be exactly what Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch did with Richard Petty Motorsports’ Darrell Wallace Jr. in Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen at Watkins Glen International en route to a disappointing 11th place finish that came in the form of a stage three comeback.

But even ignoring that incident completely, should there be concern for Busch moving forward for a separate reason?

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Over the last few months, Busch simply hasn’t been the Busch we are used to seeing. It seems that he is, like usual, a favorite to win every week, but there is always somebody, several times multiple drivers, who just seem to be better than he is.

Busch hasn’t won a race in more than two months, as he last won the race at Pocono Raceway in early June. He is currently on an eight-race win drought.

The last time Busch was on this long of a win drought in a single season was in the 2017 season. He did not win a race until he won the season’s 21st race at Pocono Raceway, and his most recent victory at the time had not come since he won the 2016 season’s 20th race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, more than one year prior.

He did go on a nine-race win drought from the 2017 season to the 2018 season, but only three races and six races at a time took place in these individual seasons, respectively.

Additionally, Busch has been the lowest finishing driver of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers for three consecutive races and four of the last six. One of those three races even took place at Pocono Raceway, which he entered having won two consecutive races at the track and three of the last four.

Through the first 16 races of the 2019 season, he had only been the lowest finishing driver of the four Joe Gibbs Racing drivers once, and he was only the lowest finishing driver of his teammates in four races throughout the entire 2018 season.

However, even considering all of this, Busch should not be concerned.

First of all, Busch may not be the dominant driver who we have grown used to seeing as of late, but his average finishing position over the course of his eight-race win drought is 9.13, which trails only that of teammates Martin Truex Jr. (8.13) and Denny Hamlin (8.50). Fourth place on this list is another Joe Gibbs Racing driver, Erik Jones. His average finishing position in the last eight races is 10.13.

Finishing the lowest among his four teammates isn’t as terrible as it seems for the 34-year-old Las Vegas, Nevada native given the recent success that they have all had, even if it does mean he will have to step it up moving forward, which there is certainly no doubt that he will if he wants to win another championship.

Second of all, despite his recent struggles, Busch just did something he hadn’t done in more than two months, and he is now where he hasn’t been in close to two months.

Busch retook the lead of the championship standings from Team Penske’s Joey Logano, who had sat atop the standings since he won the season’s 15th race at Michigan International Speedway on Monday, June 10. Busch had not taken the lead of the standings since the season’s 13th race at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday, May 26. He now has a 13-point (851 to 838) lead over Logano in second place.

Finally, Busch knows what it’s like to win the regular season championship, as he did it last season, and there is a huge incentive to do so. The top 10 finishers in the regular season standings score additional playoffs points, which they carry through the round of 16, the round of 12 and the round of 8 of the playoffs.

The regular season champion scores 15 playoff points while the second place finisher scores 10 playoff points. Despite his recent struggles, Busch is now in a position where he can actually start gaining some momentum, and perhaps more importantly, some confidence as the regular season comes to a close, and earning those 15 points instead of Logano would create a 10-point swing over Logano, which would be huge.

Busch already leads all drivers with 28 playoff points, and the second place total is that of teammate Martin Truex Jr., which is 22. Logano, meanwhile, has only scored 17.

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Despite Kyle Busch’s recent cold streak, he has still been one of the best drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, and he is still leading every significant category when it comes to the playoffs. His “cold” streaks are streaks that 90% of the field would love to have, even if it does involve one of his longest win streaks in quite some time.

Other than for potential retaliation down the road stemming from his involvement in several scuffles during the race at Watkins Glen International, he has no reason to be concerned.

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