NASCAR Cup Series: Is Denny Hamlin the championship favorite?

Following his Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race victory at Bristol Motor Speedway, is Denny Hamlin the favorite to win the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

Last year at this time, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin was en route to what would become the first winless season in his full-time NASCAR Cup Series career, which began in the 2006 season.

Skip ahead one year later, and he is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career.

With 12 races to go in the 36-race season, he has already recorded 13 top five finishes, and his career-high in this category is 15. He is poised to shatter that mark, just as he is poised to shatter his career-best average finish. Entering the season, his career-best in this category was 11.64. So far this season, his average finish is 9.04.

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The 38-year-old Chesterfield, Virginia native is seemingly unstoppable right now following his victory in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the sixth race in a six-race span during which he has recorded nothing but top five finishes and the fifth race in a five-race span during which he has recorded nothing but top three finishes.

Hamlin’s average finish in the last six races is a series-best (by far) 2.33, and his average finish in the last five races is, again, a series-best (by far) 1.80. He has won two of the last four races to go along with his season-opening Daytona 500 victory, his second career Daytona 500 victory, at Daytona International Speedway and his victory at Texas Motor Speedway.

Has Hamlin established himself as the favorite to win the 2019 championship?

The two drivers who have gotten much of the spotlight as championship favorites this season are two of Hamlin’s three teammates, 2015 champion Kyle Busch and 2017 champion Martin Truex Jr. Busch was the first driver to win four races this season while Truex was the second.

But neither one of these two drivers are hitting their strides right now in the least. Busch is in the midst of his longest win drought (10 races) since he was on a win drought of over one year between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, and Truex, like Busch, is set to enter the month of September having not won a race since June.

Hamlin, meanwhile, went from having won half the number of races that these two drivers have won so far this year to tying them atop the Cup Series wins list in a 20-day span, and he finished in third and second place, respectively, in the two races during this span that he did not win.

Additionally, his most recent victory came even after he was faced with adversity throughout pretty much the entire race. His #11 Toyota took damage as a result of an early crash, and he ended up being mired two laps off the lead lap due to an untimely caution flag period.

Throw in two loose wheels, and you’d never even expect Hamlin to finish on the lead lap, much less win. Yet that’s exactly what he did, and he did so in thrilling fashion over the hungry Matt DiBenedetto of Leavine Family Racing, who is still seeking the first victory of his Cup Series career.

Is Denny Hamlin the favorite to win the 2019 NASCAR Cup Series championship? At this rate, it is certainly hard to bet against him; there is no driver who even comes close to standing out as a better pick. While things can certainly change between now and the Championship 4 season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway in mid-November, he has become not only the favorite but the clear favorite to win the 2019 title.