NASCAR: Who will lead Joe Gibbs Racing in 2020?

Following a strong 2019 campaign, we examine which driver will be Joe Gibbs Racing’s top NASCAR Cup Series finisher in the upcoming year.

Joe Gibbs Racing are coming off a storybook year in the NASCAR Cup Series that saw them capture a record 19 wins in a season (including the Daytona 500), all four drivers visit victory lane and make the playoffs, three drivers make the Championship 4 and one driver win it all.

Once again, it was Kyle Busch leading the charge with five wins, 17 top five finishes, a team-best 27 top 10 finishes, a team-best 8.9 average finish and a second career championship.

It was the fifth straight season in which Busch was the team’s top finishing driver, dating back to 2015 when he missed the start of the year with injury before coming back to win his first title.

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The other 2019 Championship 4 drivers for the team were Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.

Hamlin recorded six wins, a team-leading 19 top five finishes, 24 top 10 finishes and an average finish of 9.5 en route to a fourth place finish in the championship standings.

Truex’s first season with the team saw him record a team-leading seven wins, 15 top five finishes, 24 top 10 finishes and an average finish of 9.8 en route to a second place finish in the standings.

With all of the momentum that they have heading into the 2020 season, it could very well be the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers battling it out in the title fight once again.

But, who will be the team’s best driver?

Yes, Erik Jones is also a Joe Gibbs Racing driver, but with less experience and without the comparable stats up to this point, I’ll keep my focus on the other three.

Despite the fact that Busch was their top driver last year, there was no clear frontrunner like there had been in years past. Hamlin has also had his hot streak, finishing as the team’s top driver from 2008 to 2012. Similar to last year’s parody, this came despite the fact that Busch led the team in multiple key categories in 2008 and 2011.

Perhaps we can find some insight through trends. Crew chiefs appear to be a big deal and recent years have also been kind to Truex and Busch.

Hamlin posted career-bests last season in top five finishes, top 10 finishes and average finish with new crew chief Chris Gabehart calling the shots. His career numbers resemble a rollercoaster and appear to favor the first year with a new crew chief.

His first full-time season saw two wins and a third place finish in the championship standings with Mike Ford before he dropped off to a 12th place finish the following year. Ford did lead Hamlin to a career-best eight wins and second place finish in the championship standings in the 2010 season before another fall-off.

Hamlin’s ups and downs continued, as he saw improvements in his first seasons with Darian Grubb, Dave Rogers and Mike Wheeler. So success in year one with Gabehart was not surprising. But the question remains whether or not he can stay consistent like he did from 2016 to 2017, posting similar numbers in those first two seasons with Wheeler.

For Truex and Busch, their recent success has a similarity: new crew chief in 2015.

Truex excelled with Cole Pearn atop the pit box in 2015, with his first top 10 finish in the championship standings coming in the form of a Championship 4 appearance. Sure, there was more to Furniture Row Racing’s shocking improvement than a new crew chief, but Pearn played a huge factor.

In Truex’s first nine full Cup Series seasons, he recorded two wins, 32 top five finishes and an average finish of 17.9. But over the next five seasons, he recorded 24 wins, 70 top five finishes and an average finish of 11.2. He also made the Championship 4 in four of those five years, winning the 2017 championship in the process.

Different from Truex, Busch had his share of success throughout his first 15 full seasons. However, the improvement in the past five years is also noticeable.

Adam Stevens, as with Pearn, took on the role of new crew chief, calling the shots for Busch beginning in 2015.

The comparison in numbers for Busch? His first 10 full seasons saw 29 wins, 118 top five finishes and an average finish of 14.9. But over the next five seasons, he recorded 27 wins, 82 top five finishes and an average finish of 10.2, leading him to five straight Championship 4 appearances and two titles.

The recent success seems to favor Busch and Truex as the cream of the crop for Joe Gibbs Racing. But there is one noticeable change for 2020.

Pearn announced during the offseason that he will step away from the sport to spend more time with his family. Similar to when he took over, it will be the lead engineer promoted for the 2020 season. James Small is set to take over crew chief duties for the #19 team.

The remainder of the crew chief lineup will stay the same for Joe Gibbs Racing. While Truex will have an additional change to get used to, he did seem to adjust to the change in teams rather seamlessly last season, and the arrival of a new crew chief did benefit him before.

But with all things considered, Busch appears to have the most momentum on the team, with the same crew chief and the role of defending champion. His recent sports car debut in the Rolex 24 at Daytona and his continued appearances in the Xfinity Series, where he’s approaching 100 wins, are other factors that could keep him just a little bit sharper than the competition.

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Joe Gibbs Racing as a whole are coming off a strong 2019 campaign and should be considered a top threat again throughout the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season. While it should be a close battle between their stable of drivers, a mix of momentum and a strong track record makes Kyle Busch the driver to watch once again as the favorite for top-dog.

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