IndyCar: How many championship scenarios favor each driver?

By Asher Fair | Oct 23, 2020

Scott Dixon, Chip Ganassi Racing, and Josef Newgarden, Team Penske, IndyCar /

Based on every single possible outcome in Sunday’s IndyCar race, here are the chances for Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden to win the 2020 championship.

The 2020 IndyCar season is scheduled to end where it was once scheduled to begin, on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg.

There are two drivers who are still eligible to win the championship, marking 15 consecutive seasons in which the title battle has come down to the final race. This down-to-the-wire battle comes despite the fact that for the first time since 2013, the season finale is not a double points-paying race.

Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon has led the championship standings since winning the season opener at Texas Motor Speedway, but Team Penske’s Josef Newgarden has recently taken a huge chunk out of his deficit to the five-time champion.

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The two-time and reigning champion trailed Dixon by 117 points with six races remaining on the schedule. Over the last five rounds, he has taken 85 points out of the gap to make it just a 32-point deficit.

Fortunately for Dixon, who lost 32 points to Newgarden in the first of two races at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course at the beginning of October, he has already clinched the tiebreaker, meaning that Newgarden will need to outscore him by at least 33 points in the season finale in order to win the title.

The driver of the #1 Chevrolet has not outscored the driver of the #9 Honda by more than 32 points in any one of the last 21 races going back to last June.

With 24 drivers set to compete in the race, all point totals will fall between six and 54 points. A 24th place finish is worth six points, and a win can be worth up to 54 points, since a win itself is worth 50 points, taking the pole position is worth one point, leading at least one lap is worth one point and leading the most laps is worth two points.

There are a few things to note here. First of all, race wins are worth 50 points, but drivers cannot score exactly 50 points in a race, because race winners must lead at least one lap, and leading at least one lap nets one bonus point.

Secondly, there are only five possible bonus point combinations, primarily because drivers who score two bonus points for leading the most laps cannot do so without securing the single point for leading at least one lap.

Four bonus points can only be done by taking the pole position (+1) and leading the most laps (+1 and +2). Three bonus points can only be scored by leading the most laps (+1 and +2), but NOT taking the pole position (in any combination).

Two bonus points can only be scored by taking the pole position (+1) and leading at least one lap (+1), but NOT by leading the most laps. One bonus point can be scored by taking the pole position (+1) and NOT leading at all OR by leading at least one lap (+1), but not from the pole position and not by leading the most laps.

So there is only one possible bonus point total (+1) which can be scored in multiple ways, and there is only one possible bonus point total (+1) which can be shared by multiple drivers in the same race.

Thirdly, keep in mind the fact that if one of the two championship contenders (a) takes the pole position and scores that bonus point, the other cannot do so, and if one of the two championship contenders (b) leads the most laps and takes scores two bonus points, the other cannot do so. Both drivers can, however, score one bonus point for leading a lap.

There are a total of 49 numbers from six to 54, and there are 43 possible point totals that can be scored within that range. The six impossible point totals in this range include every number from 45 to 50. For 32 of the 43 possible numbers, there are multiple scenarios that can lead to scoring those point totals.

For instance, seventh place finishes are worth 26 points. But 26 points can also be scored by an eighth place finish (24 points) that comes after having led at least one lap (+1) from the pole position (+1), or by a ninth place finish (22 points) that comes after leading the most laps (+1 and +2) from the pole position (+1).

In total, there are 145 possible different ways to score in the season finale with 24 drivers in the field. Considering the fact that several possible scores involve bonus points and there are ways other drivers can no longer score provided that a driver has claimed a certain number of bonus points, there are a total of 19,872 possible different combinations for Dixon and Newgarden in the season finale.

A total of 19,611 of these 19,872 scenarios result in Dixon winning his sixth championship (98.69%) while the other 261 result in Newgarden winning his third (1.31%).

All 261 Newgarden championship possibilities come with him scoring at least 39 points, given the fact that Dixon will score at least six simply by competing and Newgarden needs to beat him by at least 33 points in the season finale to win the title.

The scenario that gives Newgarden the most possibilities to win in terms of Dixon scoring is if he scores 51 points. This can be done by winning and leading at least one lap, but not after starting from the pole position nor leading the most laps. There are 67 ways which Dixon can score and Newgarden can win the championship under this scenario.

Should Newgarden sweep the weekend with the pole and lead the most laps to score 54 points, there are only 30 ways he can win the championship over Dixon.

However, this is slightly misleading; while he has a better chance to win the title should he do this, the reason this number is lower than the 67 winning scenarios which exist if he scores 51 points (again, by winning and leading at least one lap, but not after starting from the pole position nor leading the most laps) is simply because Dixon’s options to score bonus points decrease considerably with Newgarden taking the pole position and leading the most laps.

At that point, Dixon’s only bonus point option is to lead at least one lap.

By contrast, should Newgarden only score a single bonus point for leading at least one lap, Dixon can still score any number of bonus points (from 0 to 4) in any possible bonus point scenario — taking the pole position, leading at least one lap and/or leading the most laps.

If Newgarden scores 39 points, which he can do only by leading the most laps and starting from the pole position en route to a third place finish, the only scenario in which he wins the championship over Dixon is if Dixon finishes in 24th (last) and scores no bonus points.

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Be sure not to miss NBC’s live broadcast of the 2020 Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg from the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida this Sunday, October 25 at 2:30 p.m. ET.