IndyCar drivers most likely to miss the 2021 Indy 500

Not all 35 IndyCar drivers who attempt to qualify for the 105th running of the Indy 500 will qualify for the race. Which two will be left on the outside looking in?

For the first time since the 2019 IndyCar season, the Indy 500 is back in the month of May, and also for the first time since the 2019 season, bumping will be required to set the starting lineup for this year’s running of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing”.

A total of 35 cars are on the entry list for this 200-lap race around the four-turn, 2.5-mile (4.023-kilometer) Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in Speedway, Indiana, and there are just 33 spots in the starting lineup.

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So when the field packs up in 11 rows of three ahead of the green flag on race day, two drivers who attempt to qualify will be spectating as opposed to competing.

Which two drivers will fail to qualify for this year’s Indy 500?

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Given how deep this year’s full-time IndyCar field is, it’s hard to pick any of the full-time drivers, despite the fact that there always seems to be a major upset when Bump Day rolls around. I just can’t see it this year, especially with just two drivers, not three, set to be bumped.

A lot of people think A.J. Foyt Enterprises’ Dalton Kellett is one to keep an eye on as far as hanging on for a spot in the top 33 at best, but I can’t see that scenario playing out. He should be fine.

A.J. Foyt Enterprises have made some solid strides since last year, and even last year when they were one of the slowest teams on the grid, Kellett qualified just one spot behind teammate and Indy 500 great Tony Kanaan. Both drivers started on the eighth row.

As for the other 20 full-time drivers, I don’t think we need to justify why they should be safe.

The two drivers who will probably be the most concerned come Bump Day are Carlin’s Max Chilton and Top Gun Racing’s RC Enerson.

In 2019, three drivers failed to qualify for the race. Chilton was one of them, and the other two were also driving cars affiliated with Carlin, including Fernando Alonso’s McLaren entry. Only one Carlin driver, Charlie Kimball, qualified for the race, and Indianapolis Motor Speedway has historically been one of his better tracks.

Can a Carlin team that don’t seem to have made a ton of strides on the superspeedways in recent years outqualify really two entries — and do so with a driver who hasn’t finished an IndyCar race inside the top 10 in four years?

As for Top Gun Racing and Enerson, they have never turned a lap at the Brickyard and are facing a massive uphill battle given the depth of this year’s field.

We saw DragonSpeed enter the Indy 500 for the first time in 2019 and lock themselves into the field, but that was thanks to a Herculean qualifying run by sports car veteran Ben Hanley to impressively qualify on the ninth row. Up until that point, they struggled mightily and looked like a surefire bet to be knocked out.

Could Top Gun Racing surprise us as well? Sure. But let’s not forget the fact that DragonSpeed had competed in two races earlier that season. Last season, the first with the new aeroscreen, the Indy 500 was their only event, and Hanley qualified in 33rd.

He was almost three and a half miles per hour slower than 32nd place J.R. Hildebrand, failing to crack 223 miles per hour while Hildebrand went over 226.3. With any more than 33 cars attempting to qualify in that race, he would have been nowhere near making the field.

Needing to beat out two teams in not only your first ever Indy 500 but your first ever IndyCar weekend just to compete in the event itself is no easy task, and I’m not sure that Top Gun Racing can pull it off.

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing and Sage Karam may be one to watch here as well after two consecutive last row qualifying efforts, but they believe that downsizing from two cars to one will play to their advantage, even though they, unlike several other smaller teams, lack a technical alliance with a big-name organization.

In seven Indy 500 attempts, including six for Dreyer & Reinbold Racing, Karam has never started lower than 31st place, meaning he has outqualified multiple drivers every time. If he can simply outqualify at least two drivers once more, he’ll be in the top 33.

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Indy 500 practice is scheduled to begin this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. Qualifying is scheduled to take place on Saturday, May 22 and Sunday, May 23, and the race itself is scheduled to take place on Sunday, May 30, with live coverage provided by NBC beginning at 11:00 a.m. ET.