Denny Hamlin, the winningest driver in NASCAR Cup Series history (by far) without a championship to his name, has looked like the man to beat all year.
Even before his three-race winning streak in May and June, the No. 11 Toyota was the fastest car in the garage on a weekly basis. While overcoming a 129-point deficit in the regular season point standings to Tyler Reddick, who had five wins by mid-April, once might have seemed impossible, Hamlin did it in a matter of six weeks, and with nine races to spare.
He clinched the regular season title even before the regular season finale, ultimately winning it by 89 points over Ryan Blaney. But for as much as it's been said that every point matters during the regular season under the new postseason format, that is only partially true.
The regular season champion would only be awarded a 25-point lead in the point standings entering the playoffs, regardless of the actual margin. Between Blaney and the other 14 playoff drivers not named Hamlin, they made up over 3,000 combined points on Hamlin thanks to the post-regular season reset.
Hamlin's lead dropped to 12 points in the playoff opener at Darlington Raceway, thanks to teammate Christopher Bell's win, and it dropped to nine points in the second postseason race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, thanks to Kyle Larson's first win in over 16 months.
Now Larson is the new points leader, with Hamlin sitting one point behind him after recording zero top eight finishes in the first three playoff races. On the flip side, Larson's worst finish during that stretch is fifth.
The big issue for Hamlin isn't that he's no longer the favorite. He is still considered the driver most likely to win the 2026 title, and with three consecutive 1.5-mile ovals (Kansas Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway) next up on the schedule, he should have a pretty good shot to retake the points lead.
And even without a top eight result thus far in the postseason, he's still fourth among all drivers in total points scored over those three races.
The problem is that the three drivers who he least likely wants to see in a championship battle are now the drivers with whom he's directly battling, and that could spell trouble as the Chase winds down.
Let's start with the obvious.
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports
Larson finished 303 points behind Hamlin in the regular season. So again, does every point really matter? Just two races into the postseason, he and the No. 5 team proved that they are here to compete for a championship, not rack up regular season points, with their first win since May 2025.
It took him just three races to take over the points lead, and given the heartbreaking fashion in which what looked like Hamlin's first championship turned into Larson's second in 2025, Larson is probably the last person Hamlin wants to see at the top of the standings as the playoffs progress.
Oh, and let's not forget that he won the 2025 title in a "win and in" format, despite not actually winning a playoff race.
Joey Logano, Team Penske
If there was one driver whom fans believed the new postseason format would hurt, it was Logano. With no more "win and in", would the so-called "playoff merchant" even be a playoff driver?
Forget the even-numbered year streak, which lasted the entire 12 years of the old Championship 4 format, for a moment. Since 2018, every time Logano has won more than one race during a season's second half, he has gone on to win the championship. He has done that three times and won three titles during that stretch.
His Bristol win, which vaulted him to third in points (16 behind Larson) was his third since mid-July alone. If you thought he wouldn't be a championship contender under the new format, think again. Him sitting 20th in points in late June feels like ancient history now. The No. 22 team has historically been at their best when it matters most, and the format change didn't suddenly change that.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing
While Larson and Logano are the proven contenders, Christopher Bell can be (and probably is) just as dangerous. Seven regular season runner-up finishes proved he had the speed to win races, and he finally got it done to open up the playoffs at Darlington Raceway in the Southern 500.
Bell scored the most points through the first nine playoff races a year ago, yet he was bizarrely not one of the four Championship 4 drivers simply due to the format (even with a playoff win). If he can continue to have a postseason even remotely close to the one he had in 2025, the rest of the field should look out. As it stands, he's only 17 points behind Larson.
Kansas Speedway, where Hamlin looked poised to win in April before a late caution, is scheduled to host the Hollywood Casino 400 this Sunday, September 27, with USA Network set to provide live coverage beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Add us as a preferred source on Google