There is still plenty of racing left on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season schedule, with six of 26 races yet to be run before the 10-race postseason is set to begin at Darlington Raceway in early September.
Before the season began, NASCAR reverted back to an iteration of the old "Chase" playoff format that was used from 2004 to 2013, before the much-maligned "win and in" knockout system was implemented in 2014.
The playoff field is still set to consist of 16 drivers, but the way to qualify is simple: be in the top 16 in the point standings after the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway in late August.
With the cut line battle being as close as it is, who could still sneak into the field? Here are five drivers who could crash the playoff party.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Given just how bad Trackhouse Racing's season has gone, Ross Chastain's recent run has undoubtedly generated at least some momentum in the right direction as the postseason approaches. Whether it's too little, too late remains to be seem, but things have gone a lot better over the part month or so than they had been to start the year.
It took until the mid-June race at Pocono Raceway for Chastain to finish a non-superspeedway race in the 15, and that race began a streak of three such results in a row.
He's one of only two drivers, the other being Team Penske's Ryan Blaney, to be riding a streak of at least six straight top 18 finishes, and while that may seem like an arbitrary cherry-picked stat, it's really not in an era where consistency is meant to play the biggest role in determining who gets to the playoffs and who doesn't.
He's still 45 points below the cut line in 20th, but that's a much better position than he was in a few weeks ago, when he was outside of the top 25 entirely. Even a version of Trackhouse that's a shell of itself from 2022 should be good enough to allow Chastain to keep things interesting.
Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing
Brad Keselowski's run of form in recent months has been perplexing, given his relatively strong start to the season as well as the fact that teammate Chris Buescher, who's seventh in points, continues to show that RFK Racing do have upside to at least run near the front of the pack pretty much anywhere.
A 43-point deficit won't be easy for the driver-owner to overcome, but all he really needs to do is find a groove again and consistently not finish poorly. The fact that the deficit is only 43 points might actually be a blessing, considering just how bad his results have been since the end of April.
But not finishing poorly might be easier said than done. In the 11 most recent races, he's finished no higher than 13th, recorded an average finish of 25.5, finished outside the top 20 on eight occasions, and finished 30th or worse on six.
And yet with all that, he's still only 43 points behind? Don't rule out the 2012 champion, who happens to be the only active champion from the initial Chase era.
Joey Logano, Team Penske
I don't see a way where the 2026 version of Joey Logano manages to qualify for the playoffs, overcome the inevitable huge points deficit to start the playoffs due to his lackluster regular season, and win the championship simply because it's an even-numbered year.
That said, I'm sure under the old format, Logano's season would be viewed as "championship-worthy", whatever that really means, and he'd probably find a way to win yet another Bill France Cup, 19.8 average finish and all.
Just look at 2024, when he only got to the playoffs because of a fuel mileage, five-overtime win over the driver who was last in the point standings, kept his championship hopes alive when another driver was disqualified in a mid-playoff cutoff race, and won the title despite finishing outside the top 10 in full-season points.
None of that is happening this year under the new format, despite the early suggestion that he and the No. 22 team would find a way game the new system as well. But I still don't think it's far-fetched to suggest that Logano, despite having spent the past few months on the outside looking in, has a pretty solid chance of qualifying for the postseason.
He's only eight points out as it stands right now, and several upcoming tracks should suit both his strengths and those of Team Penske. Those hoping to see him completely miss the postseason under the new format could still be quite disappointed.
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing
Ryan Preece has had about as mediocre of a season as a driver can possibly have when it comes to those in the hunt for the playoffs. He's been hanging around the playoff cut line all year long, yet his best finishes of the entire season are a pair of eighths. He has just one other top 10 result.
For what it's worth, he's 18th in the point standings, and 10 of the next 11 drivers below him have recorded at least one finish higher than eighth this season.
The funny part?
He's only 26 points below the playoff cut line despite having been docked 25 points by NASCAR earlier this season due to an incident at Texas Motor Speedway. So his season, as "mid" as it's been, is literally good enough to have him only a single marker below the top 16 cutoff.
A Preece playoff berth would be uninspiring, and it would undoubtedly prevent a much higher-upside driver from getting in. But it could very well still happen.
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
We're going to cheat here by inserting a fifth driver who actually currently finds himself inside the provisional playoff picture, but only because his position is one that has long been viewed by fans as fragile simply because there are no more road course races left on the schedule.
Let's consider a few things first. Even though he was 25th in regular season standings a year ago, Shane van Gisbergen would have been 16th and thus qualified for the postseason had the new points format been in place.
This year, he has been vastly improved on ovals, with six finishes in the top 11, and is 14th in the standings despite a street course DNF and "only" two wins in four non-oval starts, compared to four in five during the 2025 regular season.
He still has work to do to retain his position, which, at 31 points above the cut line, is indeed far from safe. But he's far from the mere "road course merchant" fans wanted to believe he was, and he could very well work his way into the postseason because of his oval success, as crazy as that might sound.
Tune in to North Wilkesboro Speedway's first NASCAR Cup Series points race since 1996, the Window World 450, this Sunday, July 19 at 7:00 p.m. ET. Live coverage of the 21st race on the 26-race regular season schedule is set to be provided by TNT.
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