Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway was the second of 10 races on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series "Chase" postseason schedule, so it goes without saying that it's still early.
But in some ways, the phrase "it's still early" can simply be a way to cope, because even though there are indeed still eight races remaining on the 2026 calendar, several questions have already been answered, and some of those answers are relatively clear.
And what's clear is that many playoff drivers can already kiss their championship hopes goodbye.
First of all, there may have been 16 playoff drivers, but there were never 16 true title contenders, even after the points reset that saw regular season champion Denny Hamlin literally lose more than 3,000 combined points to his 15 championship rivals. The playoff field is disproportionately large, relative to how many drivers there are with an actual chance to be crowned champion.
And second of all, even some of the drivers who might have been considered contenders to enter the postseason have already had the rug pulled out from underneath them, and they're probably better served to starting building a notebook for 2027.
Here are eight drivers who aren't winning the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing
Ryan Preece was the feel-good story after winning his way into the field with a regular season finale victory, the first of his career, at Daytona International Speedway, ironically despite the removal of "win and in". But that win was his first (and is still his only) top seven finish of the year. He's up to 14th in points, but he's not overcoming a 113-point deficit.
Daniel Suarez, Spire Motorsports
Another feel-good story. Daniel Suarez would have made the postseason even without his upset win in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600, which nobody would have expected after Trackhouse Racing fired him and replaced him with the driver who finished 34th out of 35 in the regular season standings. But he has just one top five finish since that Coke 600 win and has already dropped to last in the standings among postseason drivers.
Chris Buescher, RFK Racing
I wanted to believe that the driver whose name has been mentioned maybe two times all year could put together a Cinderella run; after all, he did win three oval races in a row in 2023. But that's not happening. Chris Buescher hasn't finished a race higher than 10th since June, and most importantly, he hasn't won on an oval since that streak ended more than three years ago.
Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing
Bubba Wallace has had the speed of teammate Tyler Reddick, who won five regular season races, most of the year, but he and the No. 23 team simply haven't executed at as high of a level. They've had a relatively strong start to the postseason, but finishes of eighth and 14th aren't going to cut it moving forward. He should still at least have a shot to better his previous career-best finish of 10th in points.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske
It was hilariously ironic that the one driver who would have missed the playoffs under the old "win and in" format but made it in this year under the points-focused format is a driver whom many had previously considered a "win and in" merchant. Austin Cindric is in a Wallace-like situation: solid start to the postseason, good chance to set a new career-high points finish, possibly with a win. But nothing more than that.
Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports
Even if you ignore the common social media argument that his rivals simply won't allow him to win a championship due to being fed up with his on-track antics, Carson Hocevar is not a championship-caliber driver. Strip away the name, the reputation, and everything else but the stat line: he has one career win, and it came in a drafting race. He needs to do a lot more to enter NASCAR's elite.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports
Now we're into the heavy hitters, or at least the drivers who were supposed to be heavy hitters entering the 2026 season. William Byron hasn't won a race in a over a year, and his regular season numbers were a far cry from what they were when he won the regular season title in 2025, en route to a third consecutive Championship 4 appearance. Perhaps teammate Kyle Larson snapping his 51-race win drought could give him some hope, but he's already 114 points behind.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports
After pretty much carrying Hendrick Motorsports during the first half of the regular season, it's as if the No. 9 team packed it up and decided that that was good enough for the entire year. Chase Elliott has two top 10 finishes in the past four and a half months (and just one in the past three in a half), and his crash at Gateway put him in an even deeper points hole than he was already in. Elliott fans should be rooting for a 16th place points finish so that much-needed changes are finally made.
Race three of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series postseason is the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, which is set to be shown live on USA Network from Bristol Motor Speedway starting at 7:30 p.m. ET this Saturday, September 19.
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