On Sunday, May 3, Hendrick Motorsports' Chase Elliott drove to victory lane at Texas Motor Speedway for the second time in three years. In second place was Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin, just as he was in late March when Elliott earned his first win of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season at Martinsville Speedway.
By the time this Sunday's eero 400 rolls around at Chicagoland Speedway, that Texas race will have been nine weeks (63 days) ago. That's a long time.
It's also a stretch of time in which the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been undefeated in full-length oval races.
Denny Hamlin's oval dominance is even scarier than it looks
We'll admit it. The stat itself, while it looks intimidating, can come across as cherry-picked. That's just it; it's not, and for a couple reasons. And that's exactly why a de facto two-month win streak doesn't even do Hamlin's current form justice.
Granted, there have been three road or street courses contested since then. But how many more are on the 2026 schedule? More importantly, how many are on the 10-race "Chase" playoff schedule?
The same as Hamlin's (current) championship tally, which many believe might finally change in November.
We'll start with the All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway. Sure, it wasn't a points race, but that was the race where it truly felt like Hamlin, even with only one win (Las Vegas Motor Speedway in mid-March) up to that point, established himself as this year's championship favorite.
Even with 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick owning a massive lead, one that once felt insurmountable, in the point standings, thanks to his three-race winning streak to start the season and his series-high five wins in nine races, Hamlin looked like the driver to beat.
At the age of 45, in his 21st season as a full-time driver, he's on pace to set a new career-high in laps led and by a pretty sizable margin.
All things considered, Hamlin probably should have won three or four more points races by that point. But "woulda coulda shoulda" is only as good as "woulda coulda shoulda", and nobody knows that more than the "woulda coulda shoulda" 2025 champion himself.
That was Dover.
Then there was Charlotte Motor Speedway. In typical 2026 Hamlin fashion, he had the car to beat. He had the car to win. And lo and behold, he didn't.
The race was shortened by rain, and a brilliant strategy call by Spire Motorsports and Daniel Suarez netted them the upset victory. Hamlin was third, beaten only on outright pace by teammate Christopher Bell.
At Nashville Superspeedway, Hamlin appeared to blow it before even taking the green flag, jumping the start by about six lightyears from pole position.
He put the field on notice anyway and battled back to win the race, officially solidifying himself as the championship favorite even though he hadn't actually won a points race in more than two and a half months at that point.
At Michigan International Speedway, he took pole again. He also had to drop to the rear at the start. He still won by more than 10 seconds.
Then at Pocono Raceway, where he already owned seven wins, he did something he had never previously done in his Hall of Fame career: completed a three-race win streak. And once again, it always felt inevitable. Nobody could truly challenge the now 64-race winner.
Because nobody has beaten him a full-length oval race in two months.
All of a sudden, Reddick's 129-point lead over Hamlin is a deficit. And the difference between P1 and P2 in the standings, following the playoff reset, is 25 points, meaning the current one-point gap is really a 50-point swing.
With the playoffs set to consist exclusive of ovals for the first time since 2017, and of just one round, rather than four, for the first time since 2013, Hamlin's form on ovals is even scarier than it looks from a big picture standpoint.
Chicagoland hasn't hosted a race since 2019, so it's a bit of an unknown. But as a 1.5-mile oval, one where Hamlin won in 2015, don't be surprised if it turns into the track where Hamlin makes it five wins in his five most recent full-length oval races.
Until somebody really proves otherwise, he is unquestionably the guy to beat.
The eero 400 is set to be shown live on TNT from Chicagoland Speedway beginning at 6:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, July 5. Don't miss the track's first NASCAR Cup Series race since 2019!
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