Let's all take a time machine back to the year 2018.
It was the year of the "Big 3" of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr., who combined to win 20 of 36 NASCAR Cup Series races. Then there was Joey Logano, the actual champion that year, though one can certainly debate his title's merits. Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson were the future, with Ryan Blaney not far behind.
One driver who was not part of the championship picture, nor was he expected to ever be again, was Denny Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing competitor went winless for the first time in his career, but it felt years in the making. He had played second, if not third or fourth fiddle, at JGR for the better part of the previous half-decade, and the team had just jettisoned a still capable Matt Kenseth for a younger, fresher, and cheaper replacement in Erik Jones.
Everyone was thinking the same thing regarding Hamlin. He would be the next one off the island. Christopher Bell was waiting in the wings, and it wasn't "if"; it was "when". And "when" was probably in the next year or two.
At the end of the 2018 season, Hamlin had 31 career Cup Series wins. Some wondered if he had already seen his last.
Now, midway through the 2026 season, Hamlin has 31 career Cup Series wins... since 2018.
Denny Hamlin's second act has been an unprecedented journey that defies all logic
We've seen NASCAR Cup Series drivers have impressive resurgences from multi-year slumps before. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jeff Burton. Ricky Rudd. Bill Elliott. But those were largely fleeting last gasps before age caught up for good, and their late-career successes still didn't quite measure up to the same standard they had once set much earlier on.
What's never been seen before is a driver who has faced the "washed" allegations and then gone on to reach a sustained peak in the time after they were supposed to be on the decline. But that's what Hamlin is doing now, and he has been for the past eight seasons.
At age 45, Hamlin is having one of the best years of his career. He's on pace to set a career-high in laps led, and is the only driver within striking distance of Tyler Reddick in the point standings. Granted, JGR and Toyota are leaps and bounds ahead of the field in the speed department, but the organization's other cars are not consistently executing like the No. 11 team. At least some of that credit belongs to the driver.
At Nashville Superspeedway, Hamlin was awarded the pole but was penalized for jumping the start of the race. He came all the way back and stole the victory on a late restart, outdueling JGR teammates Bell and Chase Briscoe in a thrilling battle for career win number 62. One more and he'll tie another long-time teammate, the late Busch.
Eight years ago, Busch, who was 33 years old, had 51 career wins. That was 20 more than the 37-year-old Hamlin, and given his injury history, he was an old 37. He was a driver everyone thought would be broken down by 40. He certainly wasn't someone anybody had pegged as a guy who'd still be dominating at 45.
At that point, the idea that Hamlin had even a fraction of a percentage of a chance to catch Busch on the all-time wins list was preposterous. Outside circumstances obviously played a role on the two-time champion's end, even prior to his tragic death weeks ago. But from the Virginia native's standpoint, nobody saw anything even remotely close to this coming.
Hamlin has had two Hall of Fame careers. One prior to his accident at Auto Club Speedway in 2013, which was among the primary catalysts for his next six seasons of second-tier performance. Then, after hanging from the edge of the cliff by one hand, all he's done since the start of 2019 is win more races than any other driver in the sport.
All that's left for Hamlin to win now is a Cup Series championship. He'll probably do that too. He has the best car in the field and no more winner-take-all lottery playoff format. Nine of the 10 races in the Chase are non-drafting ovals.
It's his to lose. And if he doesn't, it will put the icing on the cake on one of the most improbable career arcs in NASCAR history.
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