Seven NASCAR Cup Series drivers are separated by only 56 points as the circuit heads into its final three weekends, beginning this Sunday at the ever-so-unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway. And out of those seven, the one most lacking in momentum is the one who has still scored the most points all season long.
Denny Hamlin has fallen to fourth in points, though he did make up some ground on championship leader Kyle Larson after both drivers had tire issues at Phoenix Raceway this past weekend. For the 21-year veteran still seeking his elusive Cup title, it's been a slow decline as the season has moved along.
Do we really want a driver like that winning the championship?
Denny Hamlin peaked at the wrong time, and that should mean something
In no other sport can a team get worse throughout a season and win a championship. That's part of the reason NASCAR instituted its version of the playoffs back in 2004, yet one nobody ever talks about it.
Obviously, the elimination format that ran between 2014 and 2025 was far too random and gimmicky. The return to the Chase is the middle ground, prioritizing late-season performance but also still forcing the championship race to play out over 10 entire weeks, rather than only one.
NASCAR even made the regular season more meaningful than it previously had been between 2004 and 2013, giving the points leader after 26 races a 25-point cushion to begin the Chase. Despite earning that reward, Hamlin and his No. 11 team have spiraled in recent weeks.
Most of Hamlin's issues during the fall haven't necessarily been his fault, but he's also not doing his part to make up for them the way Larson, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Briscoe are. Ever since his three-in-a-row streak back in June, he's led only 160 laps. During the Chase, he has only two finishes better than eighth.
As it is, Hamlin's full-season points lead can mostly be attributed to the fact that throughout the entire regular season, he was unsustainably fortunate in avoiding problems outside his control. Now the luck regression is catching up to him, and he's lost for answers.
Hamlin still has three weeks to figure something out, an opportunity this format has granted him because of what he did over the course of the first 26 races. But if he doesn't, and we have to hear the usual tired handwringing over "the driver who leads the full-season points must always be the champion, no exceptions ever", the rest of us need to be honest with ourselves about what truly makes a champion deserving.
Champions rise to the occasion. Hamlin and his team are doing the opposite, and in this format, you can't blame it on just one bad break.
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