At this point, if you don't have NASCAR's qualifying metric memorized, you're not doing it right, because the unwritten rule over the past month or so has been that rain shall not allow Cup Series qualifying to take place on an oval.
No qualifying sessions have been contested for a points-paying oval race since Saturday, May 2 at Texas Motor Speedway, and that might not change this weekend at Michigan International Speedway.
Qualifying was rained out at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway in back-to-back weeks, and lo and behold, a thunderstorm is expected (88%, according to AccuWeather) on Saturday in Brooklyn, Michigan, which is where the four-turn, 2.0-mile (3.219-kilometer) oval is located.
The qualifying metric is supposed to be used to determine qualifying orders, but that's when qualifying actually happens. When it can't, the order is flipped and simply converted into the starting lineup.
Generally speaking, the polesitter is at an advantage, unless he decides to jump the start by about a lightyear like Denny Hamlin did at Nashville. No matter, though; for all we know, he was just giving himself a disadvantage, and giving the rest of the field a chance, because he still drove from last to first after the ensuing penalty to solidify himself as this year's championship favorite.
Bottom line, qualifying could very well be rained out for a third straight weekend, and if that happens, here's what the starting lineup for Sunday's 200-lap race is set to look like, assuming Hamlin, who won at Michigan a year ago, doesn't jump the start again.
NASCAR Michigan Cup lineup if qualifying is canceled again
Order | Driver |
|---|---|
1 | Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
2 | Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
3 | Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota |
4 | Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
5 | Chase Briscoe, No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
6 | Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford |
7 | Shane van Gisbergen, No. 97 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
8 | Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
9 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet |
10 | Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota |
11 | Zane Smith, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
12 | Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
13 | Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford |
14 | Michael McDowell, No. 71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
15 | Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet |
16 | Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
17 | Ty Dillon, No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
18 | Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
19 | Riley Herbst, No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota |
20 | Noah Gragson, No. 4 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
21 | Todd Gilliland, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford |
22 | Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford |
23 | Austin Cindric, No. 2 Team Penske Ford |
24 | William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
25 | Cole Custer, No. 41 Haas Factory Team Chevrolet |
26 | John Hunter Nemechek, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Toyota |
27 | Cody Ware, No. 51 Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet |
28 | Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota |
29 | Austin Hill, No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet |
30 | Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford |
31 | Ryan Preece, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford |
32 | A.J. Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet |
33 | Josh Berry, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford |
34 | Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet |
35 | Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
36 | Connor Zilisch, No. 88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet |
37 | J.J. Yeley, No. 44 NY Racing Team Chevrolet |
Tune in to Amazon Prime Video at 3:00 p.m. ET this Saturday, June 7 for the live broadcast of the FireKeepers Casino 400 from Michigan International Speedway. As of now, the forecast looks good for race day. Don't miss the 2026 season's 15th points race!
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