Everything was going Kyle Larson's way to begin the 10-race 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Chase postseason.
After a lackluster regular season in which he finished seventh, 303 points behind championship leader Denny Hamlin with a top finish of second, he had recorded four top-two finishes, including two wins, and no finishes worse than sixth in the first six playoff races.
But everything went wrong at Phoenix Raceway.
The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet never had the pace to run better than about 20th, and a flat tire, followed by contact with the wall, ultimately ended his day.
Sunday's 312-lap Freeway Insurance 500 around the four-turn, 1.022-mile (1.645-kilometer) Avondale, Arizona was the first race in which any of the 16 playoff drivers faced the possibility of being mathematically eliminated from championship contention.
With 76 points up for grabs for each driver in each race, there would be 228 points left on the table afterward, before the season's final three races. This meant than any driver at least 153 points behind Larson in the standings could have been eliminated at Phoenix, as all of those drivers faced the possibility of falling to at least 229 points back.
Eight drivers faced that possibility. None were eliminated.
Larson scored no stage points and only scored three total points on the afternoon with a 34th-place DNF. Every single one of the other 15 postseason drivers scored at least 15 points.
No playoff driver entered the race more than 227 points behind Larson, meaning that if he was going to eliminate anybody, he needed to outscore them. He outscored exactly zero of the other 15 title contenders.
Multiple drivers will likely be eliminated this coming weekend at Talladega Superspeedway, however, with everybody at least 77 points behind Larson facing the possibility of falling at least 153 behind ahead of the season's final two races at Martinsville Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway. There will be just 152 points up for grabs heading into those two races.
That group includes nine drivers, and all of them are at least 130 points out, with six sitting at more than 153 behind as it is.
Nevertheless, thanks to Larson's disastrous Phoenix outing, even 16th-place Ryan Preece still has an outside chance to win the championship, sitting 211 points behind.
The YellaWood 500 is set to be shown live on NBC from Talladega Superspeedway starting at 2:00 p.m. ET this Sunday, October 25. Begin a free trial of FuboTV today and catch all of the action from Lincoln, Alabama!
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