McLaren's Lando Norris became the first driver to lead the Formula 1 world championship standings not named Max Verstappen since May 2022 by winning the 2025 season-opening Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park Circuit, overcoming two late mistakes to seal the victory by less than a second over Verstappen on the rain-soaked track.
But teammate Oscar Piastri, who had a shot to win that race, or at least place second, before his spin, struck back at Shanghai International Circuit, finishing in second place in the sprint ahead of Norris in eighth before dominating the Chinese Grand Prix to lead a McLaren 1-2 finish.
Verstappen, the four-time reigning world champion, is still second behind Norris in the standings, and only by eight points, an extremely narrow margin given the massive advantage McLaren have had over Red Bull from a performance standpoint so far this year.
To put it in perspective, if Formula 1 had a "WAR" (wins above replacement) stat like baseball does, Verstappen would be head and shoulders above everybody right now.
He became the first driver to win a world championship for the third place team since 1983 last year, winning more than twice as many races as Norris in the title-winning McLaren. And without him, the team probably finishes fourth, given just how far behind P7 Sergio Perez finished in the same car.
But even if Verstappen continues to finish a couple spots higher than the Red Bull should be finishing on pure pace, McLaren's advantage is such that Norris, on paper, should be able to score more points over a 30-race (24 Grands Prix, six sprint races) season than his rival, simply by not making any catastrophic mistakes.
And now Verstappen isn't even the favorite to beat Norris.
Now it's Piastri after his Shanghai domination, even as he still sits behind the 27-year-old Dutchman in the standings.
Aside from his off-course excursion in Melbourne, Piastri has probably had a stronger start to the 2025 season than Norris, which is exactly what he needed to avoid being placed in the much-feared No. 2 driver role at the Woking-based team.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, Norris is listed as the favorite to win the title at -130. But Piastri is close behind at +210 after starting the season at +600.
Verstappen, who started the year at +380, is now listed third at +550. Nobody else is listed with shorter odds than +1900, even with Mercedes and Ferrari having shown to have stronger overall pace than the RB21 early on.
Full odds, which are always subject to change, can be found here.
Race number three on the 2025 Formula 1 schedule is the Japanese Grand Prix, which is scheduled to take place at Suzuka Circuit on Sunday, April 6. Live coverage is set to be provided by ESPN beginning at 12:55 a.m. ET. Be sure to start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss it!