IndyCar: Who will win the 2019 championship?

The 2019 IndyCar season is scheduled to get underway one week from today. Who will be crowned champion by the time the season ends in September?

Nearly six months removed from the 2018 IndyCar season finale, we are just one week away from the opening race of the 17-race 2019 season, the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg, on the streets of St. Petersburg, Florida.

A total of 20 drivers representing 10 teams are set to compete on a full-time basis this season. Chip Ganassi Racing’s Scott Dixon is set to enter the season as the reigning champion after winning his fifth career championship in the 2018 season.

Will Dixon successfully defend his championship in the 2019 season, or will another driver be crowned champion?

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Dixon has competed in IndyCar in each of the last 16 seasons after spending two seasons competing in CART. In his 18 seasons in the sport, he has won five championships, a championship total that ranks second on the all-time list behind the championship total of seven-time champion A.J. Foyt.

However, the 38-year-old New Zealander has never won championships in consecutive seasons. He won the championships in the 2003 season, the 2008 season, the 2013 season, the 2015 season and the 2018 season. In fact, the last time a driver successfully defended his championship was in the 2011 season when Dario Franchitti won his third consecutive championship.

Of the other five drivers who finished in the top six in the championship standings in the 2018 season, four have won championships before. Team Penske teammates Will Power, Josef Newgarden and Simon Pagenaud, who finished in third, fifth and sixth place in the standings, won the championships in the 2014 season, the 2017 season and the 2016 season, respectively.

Andretti Autosport’s Ryan Hunter-Reay, who finished in fourth place in the championship standings in the 2018 season, won the championship in the 2012 season. No driver has won his second championship since Franchitti did so in the 2009 season.

However, Andretti Autosport’s Alexander Rossi, who finished in second place in last season’s championship standings has never won a championship. Expect that to change in the 2019 season, and not just because the past trends discussed above point to this.

2019 championship prediction: Alexander Rossi

Since coming to IndyCar in the 2016 season, Rossi has been arguably the most improved driver in the sport. After earning two victories combined in the 2016 and 2017 seasons and finishing in 11th place in the championship standings in the 2016 season and seventh in the standings in the 2017 season, he more than doubled his career win total by earning a career-high three victories in the 2018 season en route to a career-high second place finish in the championship standings.

Rossi finished 57 points behind Dixon (678 to 621) in the championship standings with eight podium finishes, 11 top five finishes and 14 top nine finishes in 17 races. His three non-top nine finishes were what cost him, and two of them came down to unforced errors that it is hard to see him making again, especially after he finished the season with seven top nine finishes, three top two finishes and two victories in the season’s final seven races.

Rossi threw away a possible top five finish in the rain-shortened race at Barber Motorsports Park by spinning out late and ended up finishing in 11th place as a result of it. He threw away a possible second place finish in the second race of the Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix doubleheader by trying to keep the race lead over Hunter-Reay on much older tires. He ended up pushing too hard, causing one of his tires to go flat, and he had to settle for a 12th place finish.

The only other race throughout the season that resulted in Rossi finishing outside of the top nine was the race at Road America, where he looked poised for yet another top five finish before a mechanical error caused him to come into the pits for repairs in the race. He ended up finishing in 16th place.

Rossi did make a mistake at the start of the season finale at Sonoma Raceway that cost him a lot of track position and pretty much ended up championship hopes before the race really got underway, but he still rallied to finish in seventh place. Since making the huge mistake in the second race of the Chevrolet Detroit Grand Prix doubleheader, which was the eighth race of the season, he has been nearly flawless.

After a career-best season during which he still threw away several points, expect IndyCar’s most improved driver over the past three seasons to improve once again in the 2019 season. Considering the fact that he finished in second place in the championship standings last season, any more improvement will result in him becoming the fifth driver to win his first championship in the last eight seasons.

Will Alexander Rossi win his first career IndyCar championship in the 2019 season? If not, which driver will win the 2019 title? The 2019 season is scheduled to begin next Sunday, March 10 with the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. To see the full 2019 schedule, click here.