Two of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season's five superspeedway races are already in the books, just two races into the new year, and both of them were won by the same driver in 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick.
The Cup Series might very well not get a "real" sense of this year's pecking order this weekend, with the series now set to run one of its four scheduled non-oval races at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), but with points set to matter this year more than they did at any point from 2014 to 2025, due to the massive change to NASCAR's postseason format, it's never too early to start looking at the playoff picture.
As is always the case with drafting races, expect the unexpected, and as a result, we have quite a few drivers who might not be considered contenders currently in the provisional 16-driver playoff field after two races, while several usual contenders are nowhere to be found.
Which drivers currently in the top 16 in the point standings are we not counting on to stay there? Here are four in particular.
Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports
Zane Smith has been the surprise of the year so far. Aside from Tyler Reddick, he is the only driver to record top seven finishes in both races this year, and he finds himself fifth in the point standings.
But after finishes of 30th and 28th in the standings in his first two seasons in the series, it's hard to imagine he'll keep up that kind of pace as NASCAR progresses to the more "normal" ovals on the schedule, starting with next weekend's race at Phoenix Raceway. It would be a nice surprise, though, to see him prove us wrong.
Daniel Suarez, Spire Motorsports
The one and only driver who ran full-time in the 2025 season and switched teams for the 2026 season has made it count so far, finding himself seventh in the standings after back-to-back solid outings to start the season.
But Suarez has started strong before and tailed off. He started the 2023 season with three straight top 10 finishes, then missed the playoffs. He won at Atlanta in 2024, and that ended up being the only reason he got into the postseason. I simply can't see a scenario where he has truly turned a corner in his 10th season.
Noah Gragson, Front Row Motorsports
Noah Gragson finds himself tied for 12th in the point standings simply by staying out of major trouble in the season's first two races. It's a major step forward compared to where he has been in past seasons, and I do think he has what it takes to be this year's John Hunter Nemechek, after Nemechek improved his points position from 34th to 25th from 2024 to 2025.
Still, I can't ignore the fact that Gragson would need to improve his 2025 position by at least 18 spots, beating more than half of the drivers who beat him a year ago, to make the playoffs. Not yet, at least.
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
This one is complicated. I'm not sure anybody truly expected road course ace Shane van Gisbergen to be in the top 16 in the point standings after back-to-back superspeedway races to start the year, but as we've said, expect the unexpected when it comes to drafting tracks.
There's no doubt that van Gisbergen has taken a step forward on other ovals as well. But even if he extends his five-race road and street course winning streak to nine by sweeping the four (notably down from six) non-oval races on this year's schedule, he's simply going to have to improve upon his career-best finish of 10th in "normal" oval races to get back to the playoffs. There's just no way around it.
Others to carefully monitor
RFK Racing's Ryan Preece would have made it to the playoffs in 2025 had the 2026 format been in place a year ago, but he was a fringe contender, finishing 14th in the regular season standings. It's exactly where he finds himself now, and after a surprisingly strong first season in the No. 60 Ford, repeating that level of success won't be easy.
Teammate Brad Keselowski also missed the 2025 playoffs, and his offseason injury didn't necessarily bode well for him heading into his age-42 season. He sits a solid ninth in points, but the upcoming races could pose a far greater challenge.
Then there's Spire Motorsports' Carson Hocevar, who has been one of the big storylines of the year (as usual) and impressively sits fourth in points. Has he really turned the corner after finishing 21st and 23rd in the standings in his first two seasons in the series?
Race number three on the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the DuraMAX Grand Prix, which is set to be shown live on Fox from Circuit of the Americas (COTA) starting at 3:30 p.m. ET this Sunday, March 1. Start a free trial of FuboTV today and catch all of the action from the season's first road course race in Austin, Texas!