Sunday night's rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway marked the end of the first half of the 26-race 2026 regular season.
Spire Motorsports' Daniel Suarez, who didn't make it to the playoffs a year ago, earned the upset victory at the four-turn, 1.5-mile (2.414-kilometer) Concord, North Carolina oval. While his win didn't lock him into this year's 10-race "Chase" postseason, given the elimination of "win and in", he is still 10th in the point standings, well above the provisional playoff cut line.
But amid his success and the success of others who were not playoff qualifiers in 2025, several drivers who did make it to the postseason a year ago have struggled to start the 2026 season and currently find themselves on the outside looking in.
With this year's playoffs set to consist of the top 16 drivers in the regular season point standings, regardless of how many wins each driver has (or doesn't have), here's a look at each of the playoff drivers from 2025 who would not be in if the 2026 playoffs began today.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske
Austin Cindric had been in the top 16 in the point standings until his DNF at Charlotte. DNFs have soured what has been an otherwise solid season for the driver of the No. 2 Ford, as he's tied for the series lead with three. He's 15 points behind RFK Racing's Ryan Preece for the 16th and final spot in the playoff field. Preece has never qualified for the postseason.
Joey Logano, Team Penske
When the new postseason format was announced, many assumed that Joey Logano would be one of the drivers whose championship chances suffered the most. So far, those assumptions have been correct. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been a mid-pack driver for much of the season, and he also has three non-DNFs of 30th or worse to go along with three actual DNFs. He's 29 points below the cutoff.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
For as much flak as Trackhouse Racing has gotten this year for being slow, the fact that Ross Chastain is nine positions behind Shane van Gisbergen, who supposedly can't contend on ovals yet finds himself inside the playoff picture, is telling. Chastain has simply had a rough season and finds himself in 23rd place in the point standings, and he's yet to finish inside the top 15 in a non-superspeedway race. That needs to change ASAP, because he's already 65 points below the cut line.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing
While it wouldn't lock him into the playoffs like it did a year ago, Austin Dillon winning at Richmond Raceway again this season would be a much-needed victory for Richard Childress Racing, given the tragic passing of Kyle Busch. As it stands, Dillon is 24th in the standings, 78 points behind Preece.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing
Aside from Dillon, the only other driver who would have missed the 2025 playoffs under the 2026 format was Josh Berry. This year, Berry finds himself 31st in the point standings, 135 points below the cut line. While he's not mathematically eliminated, it already feels safe to say that he will not be one of this year's 16 "Chase" drivers.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports
Alex Bowman missed four races due to vertigo earlier this season, but even if you factor in his average points per race, rather than his true position in the point standings of 32nd, he'd still only be 28th. He's 156 points below the cut line, and that's even with two third place finishes since returning from his absence.
Connor Zilisch, Trackhouse Racing
We're going to cheat here with a seventh driver, who was in the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series, not the Cup Series, a year ago and made it to the Championship 4 with 10 race victories.
While the adjustment from the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series to the Cup Series was always going to be a challenge, sportsbooks still listed Connor Zilisch as one of the preseason championship favorites, and the media still hyped him up to be the "next Jeff Gordon". The reality is that he still needs to adjust in a big way, as his deficit to the cut line (157 points) is greater than his entire point tally (146). He's 34th in the standings with no results higher than 14th, and he has zero top 15 finishes in points-paying oval races.
The second half of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is scheduled to get underway on Sunday, May 31 with the Cracker Barrel 400, which is set to be shown live on Amazon Prime Video from Nashville Superspeedway beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET.
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