After the first three races of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series postseason, it was hard to read much into the fact that regular season champion Denny Hamlin was no longer the points leader.
Even with issues at Darlington Raceway and World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, he had still scored the fourth-most points of any playoff driver, and Kyle Larson, who took the lead by just one point over Hamlin at Bristol Motor Speedway, was simply surging.
Plus, Hamlin's regular season points lead was drastically reduced thanks to the postseason reset, which is something that everybody knew was coming when the new format was announced in January.
The following race at Kansas Speedway was case in point. Hamlin ran third, but he lost 25 points to Larson simply because Larson's hot streak continued with a dominant win. There was not much anybody really could have done about that.
But after Sunday's race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, it's safe to say that Hamlin might actually be in trouble.
Denny Hamlin's slide didn't just start at Las Vegas
On paper, Hamlin should have clawed back at that 26-point deficit and perhaps even taken the lead. Instead, he scored no stage points after a spin at the end of stage one, and Larson rallied from a lap down to finish second, 14 positions ahead of Hamlin. Larson scored only one stage point, and Hamlin scored a bonus point for running the fastest lap, so Larson gained 14 points on Hamlin in total.
The concerning part for Hamlin is that he has gone backwards in every single race for more than a month.
He entered the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway with the regular season title already clinched, boasting a 77-point advantage over Ryan Blaney. He technically extended it to 89 points, but it was reduced to 25 due to the reset.
That 25-point lead over Blaney turned into a 12-point lead over teammate Christopher Bell after Bell won at Darlington, and it turned into a nine-point lead over Larson after Larson won at Gateway. Hamlin then fell behind Larson at Bristol by one point, dropped to 26 points back at Kansas, and is now 40 points back after Las Vegas.
He literally hasn't gained ground since mid-August at Richmond Raceway. He started that race 103 points ahead of teammate Ty Gibbs, and he ended it 115 points ahead of Blaney. Blaney cut the lead to 77 points with his New Hampshire Motor Speedway victory, but all anybody really wanted to focus on was Hamlin clinching the regular season title that weekend.
Not to mention, Hamlin technically still hasn't won a race since the spring. Since his three-race win streak from late May to mid-June, he is 0-for-15. And after recording five top five finishes in the first eight races of that winless streak, he has recorded just one in the seven races that have been run since.
Hamlin is still considered Larson's closest challenger, not only in the standings but in the sportsbook betting odds. But he has just one month to flip the script, and his spiral sure didn't just start this past weekend with his spin at Las Vegas.
The title battle is far from over, as Hamlin showed by completely erasing Tyler Reddick's 129-point lead in a matter of six races earlier this season. But that was back in May in June. Now it's October, and he is running out of time.
Sunday's Bank of America 400 is set to be shown live on USA Network from Charlotte Motor Speedway beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET. This race is set to be the first postseason race contested on Charlotte's oval, rather than its Roval, since 2017.
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