The writing was on the wall after Liam Lawson's disastrous performance in Formula 1 preseason testing at Bahrain International Circuit. We just needed an actual Formula 1 race weekend (or two) to confirm it.
Lawson's Australian Grand Prix was a disaster, as he failed to get out of Q1 and then crashed during the race. But after two qualifying sessions at Shanghai International Circuit, one for the Chinese sprint and another for the Grand Prix, his Melbourne qualifying effort remains his season-high effort.
Lawson qualified last for both the sprint and the Grand Prix in Shanghai, and an in-car analysis of his driving by Sky Sports' Karun Chandhok on the Sky Pad was alarming. Lawson's apprehensiveness and unwillingness to attack each corner cost him in a big way.
Nobody seriously expected Lawson to come in and challenge four-time reigning world champion Max Verstappen. But Verstappen has still demonstrated that Red Bull still have a top four car at the very least, not a car that should be consistently beaten by the likes of Haas, Sauber, and the usual backmarkers.
And with Lawson's anxious on-track approach, it doesn't really matter how fast the car is.
His upside is incredibly limited.
Meanwhile, Yuki Tsunoda, whom many believe should have been given the second Red Bull seat over Lawson when it was confirmed that Sergio Perez would be replaced, has thrived in year number five at sister team Racing Bulls. Rookie Isack Hadjar has consistently outpaced Lawson as well.
Red Bull have historically not been all that patient when it comes to struggling young drivers. But would they really pull the plug on Lawson after only two race weekends?
Absolutely. Because they cannot afford another weekend of this lack of performance.
The decision to promote Lawson as Sergio Perez's replacement was rushed, to say the least, and picking an 11-time Grand Prix starter over a proven quick four-year veteran in Tsunoda was ill-advised. Red Bull got desperate to avoid letting Lawson leave for a rival organization, given his September deadline, and now it has bitten them.
The overarching belief is that the Japanese driver will not return to the organization once Honda leave for Aston Martin at the end of the 2025 season. But now Red Bull are in a spot where he may be their best option to pair alongside Verstappen, and that pairing could happen as soon as the next race weekend.
It would be a perfect time for the switch, with Suzuka Circuit set to host the Japanese Grand Prix in two weeks. Lawson can be sent back to Racing Bulls, where he should have started his full-time career to begin with after a number of solid outings for the team in 2023 and 2024, and Tsunoda can be given the top seat for which he has already proven he is fit.
And he can do it in front of his and Honda's home crowd.
Unless Lawson has some kind of heroic drive from the back in Sunday's Chinese Grand Prix, don't rule out a switch being made after only two races.
ESPN is set to provide live coverage of the Chinese Grand Prix from Shanghai International Circuit beginning at 2:55 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 23. Start a free trial of FuboTV and don't miss any of the action!